You can tell budget season is near when the finance ministry begins last-quarter growth strategy chatter, FBR chairman promises no new taxes and the prime minister directs the planning commission to make development and employment its top priority. Watch for spirited pledges to safeguard the development budget next. Could these be coded signals? By plotting a return to growth, do fiscal and monetary authorities actually mean that this time they’ll restrict government presence in the money market, drawing the crowded out private sector back to the capital market? By no new taxes, is the FBR chairman actually implying that the boys have got a handle on expanding the tax net, and they’ll come up to capacity within the present regime before considering new taxes? And is the prime minister really trying to say that the old culture of inefficient enterprises and political appointments is over? Simply put, policy is not the biggest problem considering the present circumstances, practice is. Since we are effectively in election cycle, official circles are best advised to avoid slogans that have been repeatedly rubbished, and that too of their own doing. True, development must return to the economy, but that will require setting a series of events in motion, which in turn demands an official posture not always suited to election time in our part of the world. On the other hand, avoiding decisions crucial for economic revival will not sit well with an already disgruntled electorate anyway. Still, it’s not really a difficult choice. What must be done must be done. And that will take a lot more than mere promises.
