The UN designated the year 2012 as the international year of ‘Sustainable Energy for All’. During 16-19 January 2012, Abu Dhabi hosted World Future Energy Summit to discuss how the future of energy should look like, and how we can shape it. Today, the concern about energy has become central to global issues and policies as the survival and sustainability of modern life is strongly dependent upon the availability and usage of energy.
The age of fossil fuels brought tremendous changes in the way we live today. However, with the growing population and depleting oil and gas reserves, woes are increasing as how to maintain the pace of progress and prosperity that world achieved during the age of fossil fuels. Pakistan is no exception to the dictates of ever increasing stress on energy resources, given the decreasing reserves-production ratio of fossil fuels worldwide. Because of low oil and gas deposits in Pakistan, and fluctuating cost of these commodities in the international markets, the country faces accelerating economic pressure. Pakistan’s oil import bill exceeds $ 12 billion a year, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Despite this huge spending, the country remains unable to generate electricity as per demand although the fact remains that its installed capacity still exceeds peak demand.
Long hours of electricity-less life in Pakistan push the country in something akin to the Stone Age. A population which is dissatisfied can trigger political unrest and remains vulnerable to the brain and money drain. The situation also works as a huge impediment to foreign investment. The problem gets particular importance if seen with the changing demographic realities of the country: youth bulge with expectations of modern life. If the energy crisis becomes severe in the coming years, this youth bulge would become a liability for the country. Contrarily, the availability and modern usages of energy could play critical role in transformation of this youth bulge into an asset. In fact, it is important to note that development in contemporary world is in direct proportion with the usage of energy. In 2005, in the developed countries, energy use per capita per annum was 4,720 kilograms of oil equivalent (kgoe), whereas in the developing countries it was 975 kgoe. In Pakistan per capita usage of energy was further low at 490 kgoe/annum.
The technological advancements achieved during the oil age have placed the world at a juncture where we have many viable options available in the form of renewable energy. These include: nuclear, hydro, solar, wind, bio mass, tidal, geo thermal, and wave energy. All of these sources have their own merits and de-merits.
Hydro and nuclear are the best known, cost effective, and as yet the largest provider among the renewable energy sources. However, given the political strings attached to hydro and nuclear energy in the particular case of Pakistan, the wind and solar offer a workable solution and a good opportunity for business. Pakistan’s geographic location endows it with tremendous potential for generating wind and solar electricity. Studies have found that Pakistan has a potential of over 340,000 MW for wind and 100,000 MW for solar generated electricity. Both these resources are being switched to in the advanced countries and emerging powers.
Today, top five countries producing wind generated megawatts of electricity are: China (44,733), the US (40,180), Germany (27,215), Spain (20,676), and India (13,065). Important to note that Spain’s only wind generated electricity exceeds entire peak demand of electricity in Pakistan. According to a recent announcement by China’s National Energy Administration, by the year 2015 the country would increase its wind and solar power generation capacity to 100,000 MW, and 15,000 MW, respectively. The problems related to intermittence, cost, and reliability have been resolved to a great extent by technological improvements, making wind and solar energy the fuels for a green and sustainable future.
The per capita energy usage in Pakistan is expected to take a sharp upward trend in future given the combination of following factors: abysmally low per capita usage of energy at present, youth bulge, and increasing access for a large segment of population to modern amenities of life due to deepening of globalization. Policymakers in Pakistan would be thus better advised to harness wind and solar potential of the country to meet the future demand. This would not only relieve the country from economic stress that comes with importing fossil fuel based energy, but also political stress that is attached to building large dams. In addition, the clean energy obtained from wind and Sun would also keep the country away from the hazards attached to nuclear power plants.
Pakistan can not only solve its electricity problem through aggressive pursuit of wind and solar energy, it can also harness business potential by collaborating with business corporations that produce wind turbines and solar cells. Such joint ventures would be attractive for foreign companies as Pakistan ranks ahead of India and Bangladesh in South Asia in the World Bank’s ‘Ease of Doing Business Index’. Moreover, it provides a readily available market, and potential access to future markets in the adjoining region. Our policymakers should thus invite Chinese, Japanese and Korean companies for the purpose. Pakistan has a success story in the form of M-2 motorway built by a Korean company. Now is the time to build a sustainable energy highway – winding along the wind corridors, and lit by the Sun – that is pivotal for progress and prosperity; key ingredients in contemporary world for economic and social stability.
The writer works for Islamabad Policy Research Institute, Islamabad. He can be reached at [email protected]
