With a little rise in mercury, 83 new unconfirmed dengue cases have emerged in Punjab and it is being predicted that the situation this time would be worse due to the change in the genetic make up of the mosquitoes, Pakistan Today has learnt.
The Punjab government is still lacking the impetus and resources to cope with the dengue virus as there are no clinical studies available in the country to understand the range of infections, endemic patterns and genetic susceptibility of different populations to the dengue virus. Another major vulnerable point is the non-availability of Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test across the province. There is one PCR facility available in Jinnah Hospital only and Punjab government has not installed any PCR machine to diagnose dengue infection. The PCR helps in detecting changes in an organism’s DNA.
“The Health Department will make a parallel plan only after there is a clear sign that the pesticides, insecticides and other methods do not work. There is a chance that the disease would become out of control before this problem is actually detected,” an official from the Health Department asking not to be named told Pakistan Today.
NEW VIRUS STRAIN: He said Pakistan was experiencing a constant of a genotypic shift of endemic serotype of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF). He said it had been identified that co-circulation of DEN-2 and DEN-3 was responsible for the 2006 out-break in Karachi while a new serotype (DEN-3) and or a genotypic shift of endemic serotype (DEN-2) were the probable factors for the recent out-break of DHF in Lahore in 2008 but this time, all four types of dengue serotypes had been confirmed in Punjab.
He said this season another change in genetic strains could not be ruled out and this genetic change could be a fatal form because a previously infected and cured dengue patient could get re-infected again usually with different strains of the virus. He further said the signs and symptoms of dengue fever were nonspecific so PCR is essential for patients especially for those who could be infected the second time with DHF. He further said younger patients, especially children, would be more susceptible in the upcoming outbreak.
He said the severity of disease depended on virus strain, pre-existing anti-dengue anti-body previous infection, maternal antibodies in infants, host genetics, age, and secondary infections locations with two or more serotypes circulating simultaneously at high levels and virus strain.
“The government still believes that pesticides and sprays will control dengue. This is not the case,” he said, adding “the other districts of the province have been constantly ignored and there is a chance that we will see dengue on a much larger scale.” “We have completed all arrangements to control dengue and special classes would be held in educational institutions to raise awareness among the masses,” Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif said.
