It seemingly goes the Yousaf Raza Gilani’s way – politically he will gain and legally, in case he is disqualified, he will again derive its long-term advantage in his favour.
As was determined after the eight-judge bench rejecting his appeal against the seven-judge bench’s decision of indicting him, the prime minister was finally charge-sheeted on Monday and he pleaded not guilty with a resolve to contest the charge, though he may lose the legal battle.
In case of Gilani’s conviction, no matter how blatantly he defied the court orders, he will reap the political harvest of confronting the court which had not framed the contempt charges against the PCO judges. Similarly, the contempt of court charge against former army chief General Aslam Beg was also withdrawn.
Though he will be at the receiving end legally as he may be disqualified for holding any public office, not only his stature will surely rise in the party for sacrificing the PMship, the political lines will also be clearly drawn with the Pakistan Muslim Legaue-Nawaz (PML-N) being isolated and all other major parties – the PML-Q and the ANP –standing on the other side of the fence with the PPP.
In its relation to the PPP, the PML-N will stand exposed for ostensibly supporting the army when it is facing off the government and then for political advantage taking the side of the court when it takes on the prime minister. With this developing scenario, the tensions will rise on political and judicial front as well. However, the prime minister, in case he is convicted or if, in a remote possibility, he survives, will equally benefit from whatever situation he lands in.
Outside the PPP, the government will lose at the legal front if it continued denying implementing Supreme Court order despite having apparently succeeded in securing a partial win out of the crisis by tactfully earning the time so that the Senate elections could be held before the drop scene of the judicial-cum-political drama with the Supreme Court fixing February 28 as next date of hearing in the contempt case involving the prime minister.
Senate elections are scheduled to be held on March 2. But it is likely that the Election Commission may notify the returned senators before the said date due to their unopposed election for which the government is striving hard to convince other political parties for adjustments on the basis of their rightful but a little compromised share on the basis of quid pro quo.
February 24 has been set as the date for withdrawal of candidature for the Senate candidates and the list of candidates would be published on the same day. Former Secretary of Election Commission of Pakistan Kanwar Dilshad told Pakistan Today that in case all the senators were elected unopposed, the they will be notified possibly on February 24 or the next day.
In case consensus is not evolved amongst the political parties for electing the senators unopposed, the government would try to stretch the proceedings of the contempt case beyond March 2 if, in any case, the PM has to face the wrath of the apex court for his willful disregard to the direction given in the NRO case. Under the circumstances and keeping in view the government strategy, it does not seem to be a difficult task.
Amidst the political instability in the country emanating from government’s tussle with the army and the judiciary, Senate elections had been a major concern for the ruling PPP as it would be in a more comfortable position in the Upper House where it is not even a single largest party presently. The Senate elections also assume political importance for the PPP because in case it loses the general elections, it will still have a commanding role in the upper house of parliament.
The delaying tactics applied by the government’s legal team and time earned by it in NRO implementation case and now in the contempt case has also frustrated the plans of the major opposition party, the PML-N, which could have played the trump card to block Senate elections by submitting en-mass resignations from the assemblies after the political chaos emerged in case the PM is convicted before the Senate elections.
Understandably, the option on the legal front for the government are very limited as it has been desperately attempting to extract maximum out of the crisis before it goes for the fresh elections. After having exhausted all legal points available to it in the NRO implementation case, the government wanted to make a political out of the judicial case which, it believed, would benefit the party in the coming general elections.
On the other hand, becoming a ‘political martyr’ will make Prime Minister Gilani, even if his convicted and disqualified, a ‘great loyal to the party’ from the south. This will certainly not be a big deal for him and the party.