The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP)-led coalition government is poised to get the 20th Constitutional Amendment Bill through parliament with the required two-thirds majority separately in the National Assembly and the Senate. While the coalition government does have the two-thirds majority in both Houses, the internal rift in the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) has pushed the PPP to muster support from smaller parties and independents for a smooth sailing vote, as the PML-Nawaz (PML-N) is most likely to abstain. The 20th Amendment seeks to give legal cover to the election of 28 members of the National Assembly and provincial assemblies while the Election Commission was incomplete after the passage of the 18th Amendment. The Supreme Court had set a deadline for the government to give legal cover to the by-elections by February 6. In the National Assembly, which has a strength of 334 members, the PPP needs 223 votes to get constitutional amendments passed. The seats it has, coupled with those of its allies, the PML-Q, Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), Awami National Party (ANP), the PML-Functional,
the Balochistan National Party-Awami (BNP-A) and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) parliamentarians, reaches 226. If eight MNAs from the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) support the government, its strength reaches 234 votes.
The current status of the parties’ strength in the National Assembly is as follows: PPP has 124, Independents have 18, ANP has 12, BNP-A has one, JUI-F has eight, MQM has 25, NPP has one, PML-Q has 50, PML-F has 4, PML-N has 90 and PPP-Sherpao has one, with a total of 334. In case four to six MNAs affiliated with the PML-Likeminded, the PML-Q’s forward bloc, support the PML-N, the required votes needed by the government to get the constitutional amendment passed by the Lower House are still going to be available.
If the PML-N opposes the bill, the PPP-Sherpao and as many as eight independent MNAs, particularly those elected from Punjab, are likely to support it. A source in the government told Pakistan Today that Fazlur Rehman’s party – the JUI-F – had assured the PPP of its support for the bill.
The government had moved the bill a few weeks ago in an attempt to legalise the actions of the chief election commissioner (CEC) during the time when the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) was incomplete. If passed, the amendment will bring an end to the uncertainty hanging over the fate of over two dozen public representatives elected during that period.
In the same manner, the PPP can comfortably get the bill passed in the Senate, where along with its allies – the PML-Q, the MQM, the ANP, the BNP-A, the JWP and FATA parliamentarians – it crosses the strength of 70, while 67 votes are needed for a two-thirds majority. The PPP government can, however, face a tough time in the Senate as around 8 dissident senators of the PML-Q are loyal to the PML-N, and will most likely toe Nawaz Sharif’s line of action. The parties’ strength in the Senate is as follows: PPP has 27 seats, PML-Q has 21, JUI-F has 10, PML-N has seven, ANP has six, MQM has six, BNP-Awami has three, JI has three, NP has two, JWP has one, PML-F has one, PPP-Sherpao has one, PkMAP has one and Independents hold 11 seats, with a total strength of 100.
