Pakistan’s economy sustains a 5-6 percent loss of GDP per annum due to the crippling electricity shortages and subsidy that is the main cause of increase in unemployment and unrest.
How we plan and manage our energy requirement for next 10 years will determine our financial future. Our current dependable energy capacity is at 19379 MW (that too if all plants are running at 100 percent capacity). With our projected energy requirement for the year 2011 standing at 26431, there is a deficit of over 5000 MW. This incurs a loss to GDP @5 percent which is calculated at 10 Billion USD. Our projected electricity requirement for the next 20 years is as follows:
Year 2010, 24474 MW; year 2015, 36217 MW; year 2020, 54359 MW; year 2025, 80560 MW; year 2030, 113695 MW. This means that at least an average of 4500 MW of new capacity additions have to be made every year to sustain this requirement.
Our GDP Loss will increase to 13 percent i.e. 140 billion USD in 2020 with a cumulative loss of the next 10 years at USD 890 billion if we increase our capacity by only 2000 MW every year instead of 4500 MW every year for next 10 years as per projected requirement.
We would need to add 34000 MW of new capacity in the next 10 years with an investment of USD 34 billion other than infrastructure enhancement investment.
Pakistan’s GDP size will be over USD 500 billion by 2020 if we are able to achieve a projected target of producing 54000 MW of electricity.
FAZEEL ASIF
Karachi