Sports This Week – The Australian Open kicks of the 2012 season on Monday. After a series of tournaments leading up to the main event, the self-proclaimed Grand Slam of Asia Pacific will be the first of the four major events around whom the tennis circuit revolves. The seedings among the men are predictable and it is difficult to look beyond the top four players for the winner.
Novak Djokovic is the favourite, having started the season with some dominating tennis in the Abu Dhabi exhibition. Djoker has not played any of the warm up events, hoping to play himself into top form in the tournament itself. This may not be a bad idea because he was looking quite ragged at the end of the 2011 season and may be pacing himself now.
On form, Djokovic would be the odds-on favourite. He is scheduled to face Andy Roddick in the quarters and Andy Murray in the semis, although Roddick on current form would find it hard to get by Robin Haase or Milos Raonic. Raonic is the wild card favourite, having won in Chennai and possessing the best serve in the game.
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are scheduled for a semi-final meeting should they get there although Federer will have to get by Dolgopolov of Ukraine in the quarters. Nadal will be looking nervously at the prospect of facing the giant American John Isner in the quarters. Another outside favourite Del Potro would meet American Mardy Fish in the quarters, although Fish, on current form would have to be at his very best to get that far. Fish has a difficult match against Giles Muller in the first round and would not relish the prospect of facing Phillip Kohl Schreiber in the third round. Also in the bottom half of the draw is the talented under achiever from the Czech Republic, Thomas Berdych. Berdych has a quarter final against the Spanish clay court specialist, Nicholas Almagro and should be too strong on the hard courts.
Andy Murray has a difficult first round encounter with rising American Ryan Harrison. Harrison has a very good high kicking serve and would be playing with nothing to lose. This promises to be one of the potential upsets of the initial rounds. Murray would face Gael Monfils in the quarters with the winner playing Djokovic in the semifinals.
The player with the best chance of taking the title outside the top four would be Joe Wilfred Tsonga, the French Mohammad Ali look alike. Tsonga won in Doha and has been having some consistent performances of late. Should he get his powerful serve and ground strokes going, Tsonga has a very good chance of upsetting Andy Murray in the quarters.
Form of his life
Djokovic is in the form of his life. He had an unprecedented season last year although fatigue led to some tailing off at the end. He will look to continue his mastery over Nadal this year after beating him six times last year. Nadal is no longer the same player who won two Wimbledons and a clutch of French Opens. His muscular playing style leaves him prone to injuries and we may have seen the best of him.
Federer, on the other hand, played some of his best ever tennis at the end of 2011. He is fit and his effortless style means that his age is not a handicap. He may be the only player who can dismantle Djokovic’s impenetrable defence. Federer defeated the Serb in Paris and had two match points at the US Open, so he knows he has the game to make it happen. Roger has been pacing himself, playing fewer tournaments and that has yielded dividends. He is still as motivated and hungry as ever as his coach Paul Annacone stated recently.
Local hope, Lleyton Hewitt meets German Cedrik-Marcel Steeb but could play Andy Roddick or rising Canadian star Milos Raonic in the second round. Hewitt has been bothered by injuries and is looking to wind down his career with a good performance here. But he simply does not have the firepower of the top players and is half a step slower.
Highly watchable
Some of the early round matches to watch in the men’s draw would be:
1) Andy Murray vs. Ryan Harrison:
Harrison would be fancying his chances, hoping to ride his big serve to a huge upset. Murray’s defence will probably prevail.
2) Bernard Tomic vs. Fernando Verdasco: Tomic is a talent, the best Australian player to emerge after Lleyton Hewitt. Verdasco has slipped out of the top 20 and looks to have lost his motivation. Look for Tomic to advance.
3) Janko Tipsarevic vs. Dmitry Tursunov: Two veterans with solid baseline games. Tursunov probably has the heavier weight of shot but Tipsarevic was impressive in Chennai and should squeeze through.
4) Mardy Fish vs. Gilles Muller: Muller has done well in the Majors, reaching the fourth round in Melbourne earlier in his career. This match could be a tossup. Fish is a flashy player but does not have the day to day consistency that guarantees him a place in the second weeks of majors – a possible upset.
5) Michael Llodra vs. Ernest Gulbis: Gulbis is a talented under-achiever. He travels in his private jet and could perhaps not be as hungry as some of the others. On a good day he can beat a lot of people. Look for the veteran Llodra to get by.
The women’s scene
US open champion Samantha Stosur will be the local hope but she has some serious competition before she reaches the second week. Nadia Petrova lurks in the third round and Marion Bartoli in the fourth. Petra Kvitova will be the favourite, ahead of the under achieving Wozniacki. Kvitova has the game to be one of the greats of the game. Her aggressive go for broke style, allied to a sound technique, means that she does not have to grind out too many matches. Her biggest challenge will come from Serena Williams. When she is on her game Williams is as good as any player that has ever played. The two could meet in the semis although Serena is seeded only 12 this year. Other in form players are Victoria Azarenka and Li Na of China who seems to have recovered from her late season slump, following a win over Kvitova last week.
Djoker, the odds-on favourite
