Life is unfair

Cracking this nutcracker

The PPP-led coalition is in all kinds of trouble, some of its own making. In a nutcracker situation, it is facing the combined wrath of the superior judiciary, the military establishment and the opposition. Whether acting in unison or not, there is a lot of talk in the air about the imminent clash of institutions.

The PPP certainly feels that it is being cornered in an effort to hound it out of office. Although both the president and the prime minister exercising restraint are reluctant to say it on record, they suspect a nexus between the judiciary and the military with a helping hand from the opposition led by Nawaz Sharif to engineer their ouster.

Endorsing the military’s viewpoint, the apex court in its detailed judgment has given a novel justification for admitting the maintainability of Nawaz Sharif’s petition. The chief justice declaring the link between sovereignty and citizens’ fundamental rights as being obvious, has added that, “once a country’s sovereignty and independence are compromised, the lives and dignity of the citizen cannot but be adversely affected.”

In a related development, the Supreme Court has declined to extend the February 23 deadline for preparation of new electoral rolls. Whereas the PPP is overtly keen to hold the Senate elections on its watch and has announced March 2 as the election date, there are powerful forces that want to rob the ruling coalition of the luxury of a possible majority in the upper house.

The most interesting case is that of the PML(N). It wants elections to take place as soon as possible and is willing to go an extra mile to destabilise and isolate the government, forcing its hand to hold an early election. The Sharifs, unnerved by Imran Khan’s rising popularity in their heartland, do not want to lend him time to organise, find suitable candidates and have elections under fresh lists. The PTI stands to gain more if elections are held on the basis of fresh lists as its vote bank is the younger segment of the population.

On the other hand, the PML(N) is also wary of the military with which it has not enjoyed an amicable relationship of late. The military does not trust the Sharifs either. Its charge that the establishment is propping up Imran has to be viewed in this context. Paradoxically, it is the Imran khan factor, which has forced the PML(N) to cooperate with the ubiquitous establishment in the wider scheme of things to get rid of the Zardari-Gilani duo.

The PPP has consolidated its position with its allies albeit conditionally. Even if it was contemplating sacking the COAS and the ISI chief, its allied parties have made it clear that they will not support such a move. Also, if Nawaz tries to bring a no-confidence motion against the parliament, the PPP’s coalition partners might not lend a helping hand.

It has been suggested to President Zardari to call early elections immediately after the Senate elections. Unless there is package deal on the Memogate scandal and the NRO, the PPP is unlikely to call elections.

A way out of the impasse could be the government agreeing to write to the Swiss authorities to reopen the cases against Zardari as has been suggested by eminent PPP lawyer Aitzaz Ahsan. According to some legal experts, the heavens will not fall if such a letter is written as he will continue to enjoy sovereign immunity being president. However, Zardari is still reluctant, saying that this would be tantamount to a trial of the grave of Benazir Bhutto which he will not allow.

Although Gilani in his emotional but somewhat measured address in the parliament claimed that he did not need to take a vote of confidence from the parliament, ANP chief Asfandyar Wali tabled a draft resolution immediately after his speech. The resolution while reiterating the need for all state institutions to work within their respective spheres talks about sovereignty lying with the parliament.

The prime minister has deferred the tabling of the resolution till Monday ostensibly to seek a consensus with the opposition. If the purpose of the resolution was to send a message to the military, that has been served.

As leader of the opposition Nisar Ali Khan knows well that it does not, however, change the ground realities. A similar resolution was passed by the parliament in October 1999. Musharraf sacked Nawaz only a few days later

The meeting of the defence committee of the cabinet (DCC) scheduled for today is crucial. The very fact that it is taking place is a positive development in the sense that at least the military and civilian leaderships have decided to bridge their trust deficit in a structured manner.

Previously, General Kayani absented himself from President Zardari’s dinner in honour of the visiting Chinese vice premier. The military has taken the stance that the Supreme Court should judge Memogate and a meeting between the troika – the president, prime minister and the army chief – seems unlikely.

The military top brass has made a strategic decision not to intervene politically. But issues like the Memogate and complying with the apex court’s order on declaring the NRO null and void cannot be simply wished away. Even if early elections are called, these issues will keep on haunting Zardari.

Hence, there is need for deep introspection by the president to review his present strategy which is simply not working. The prime minister in his speech to the parliament claimed that the government does not want to go as a martyr and simply wants to complete its term. The ground reality is that the PPP is facing a three-pronged attack and the noose around its neck is being slowly but surely tightened.

The president’s legal eagle and loyalist Babar Awan facing double contempt charges of the Supreme Court is not the right man for the job at hand i.e. to find a way out of this legal and political labyrinth. Of course, the PPP – the largest and most resilient national party of the country – has been in power four times since its inception. Surely, it will bounce back again if forced out of office.

President Zardari, a brave man indeed, is not overtly worried. But as his late wife Benazir Bhutto who faced great adversity during her political career used to say, too bad life is unfair.

The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today