‘Tis written?

An all-too-familiar script

The scenario is moving step by step towards the pre-determined denouement. This time the military will not step in directly. The government hawks have damaged its case in the SC so badly that there is a likelihood of the apex court delivering the coup de grace, beginning with Gilani and then moving towards Zardari. The army will then gladly offer its help to execute the decision, if so desired by the courts. After all, this is what it is required to do under the constitution. Had the government not dug in its heels on the issue of the implementation of the NRO verdict, defying the court on the unusual ground that it amounted to the trial of Benazir’s grave, things might have been different, at least in the crucial NRO implementation case.

The memo case was built up by those working from the sidelines. After all, the DG ISI did not do all that running around from Islamabad and London for nothing. On the face of it, there is little in the case but even if the government is finally exonerated, it would emerge out of the legal battle badly battered and bruised. A section of the media has already taken the complicity of Zardari in what it describes as treason for granted. Whatever the court’s decision, enough propaganda has already been conducted against the PPP government costing it popularity.

Those working from the sidelines have yet another plan up their sleeve if the legal scheme does not work. That PML(Q) and MQM have gradually started distancing themselves from the government indicates that this plan being simultaneously unfolded. At a wink from the masterminds, the two parties would renounce the alliance with the PPP, ensuring the fall of the government. This could even coincide with Nawaz Sharif’s no confidence move which would be described as a happy coincidence.

The army in this country has never tolerated a civilian government for long. Agencies which are adept at political engineering are set in motion. In the 90’s, it all started with a whispering campaign which was followed by newspaper plants. The government in power, it was suggested, was either thoroughly corrupt or some of its ministers were working for RAW, of course with the blessings of the prime minister. Then came the blow, normally from the president who used to be an administration’s man. The government was sent home without completing its tenure.

The only civilian prime minister acceptable to the army has to be like Shaukat Aziz. Under the system devised by Musharraf, the chief executive and ministers enjoyed all perks and privileges and were free to mint money in any way they liked. They had absolutely no say in the formulation of policies which was the sole privilege of the president in uniform and his unelected advisors.

The system suited the army. It gave it a free hand to formulate internal or external policies without being held accountable for any possible lapses and failure. The blame could always be shifted to the civilian dummies. No genuinely elected government can allow this sort of arrangement. Conflict can at best be delayed but is inevitable.

Turkey with a long history of military domination has over a decade managed to put the army under civilian control. The example indicates that political parties in other military dominated countries too can perform the feat. Prime Minister Erdogan’s government managed to do this because of its unparalleled political and economic performance. It has raised the image of the country with a foreign policy based on friendliness with neighbours and trade with all. The government’s image rose further after it firmly opposed Israeli atrocities and reduced the level of its diplomatic ties with Israel. Its biggest achievement was putting the economy back on track, something that the military rulers and the army dominated civilian governments had failed to do over many decades. With an 87 percent turnout at elections, and the massive public support in the referendum, the party is in a position to take several generals to court for plotting against it.

The PPP leadership started with a tragic flaw: millions of illegal dollars piled up in Swiss banks. Its leaders simply forgot that in Pakistan only those in uniform can keep the kickbacks from defence and other such deals. The politicians do not have that privilege. The PPP leadership wants to keep the money and complete the tenure which has brought it into a confrontation with the courts.

The PPP was keen to retain the Dogar Court because a pliant judiciary alone could have saved it from legal challenges. The refusal to restore the independent judiciary led the PML(N) to part company with the alliance. To maintain itself in power, the PPP had to bring in the MQM and PML(Q). This led to the induction of a super large cabinet and promoted corruption and bad governance. It also made the PPP unpopular in its stronghold of Sindh. The PPP failed to realise that neither of the two allies would stand by it in case of confrontation with the army and judiciary. What one sees happening is that the chickens are now coming home to roost.

The writer is a former academic and a political analyst.