Pakistanis working abroad remitted $6.325 billion during first half of current financial year, ranging from July to December 2011-2012. This shows an “impressive” growth of 19.54 per cent or $1.033 billion over the corresponding period of FY11 when the overseas Pakistanis had sent back home $5.291 billion. With country’s current account list fast deteriorating, remittances happen to be the sole indicator that lies in the green zone.
UPWARD TREND
State Bank of Pakistan reported that remittances received from all countries of the world remained upward during the review period. A country and region-wise breakup shows that inflow of remittances from Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, United States, United Kingdom, Gulf Cooperation Council countries (including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman) and European Union countries amounted to $1.661 billion, $1.412 billion, $1.150 billion, $726.35 million, $721.19 million and $189.14 million, respectively.
LAST YEAR’S NUMBERS
Last year, the same period (July-December FY11) had seen remittances from the abovementioned destinations accounting, respectively, for $1.143 billion, $1.255 billion, $997.68 million, $577.17 million, $626.29 million and $172.10 million. The remittances received from Norway, Switzerland, Australia, Canada, Japan and other countries during the period under review were recorded by the central bank at $463.61 million compared to $518.69 million of the last corresponding period.
MONTHLY AVERAGE
On monthly average basis Pakistani compatriots working abroad remitted $1.054 billion compared to $881.91 million they sent back during the same period last year. This registers an upsurge of 19.54 per cent. Last month, an amount of $1.085 billion was remitted by the overseas Pakistanis, up 25.75 per cent when compared with $863.13 million received in the same month of December 2010. In December 2011, the inflow of remittances from Saudi Arabia, UAE, USA, UK, GCC countries and EU countries amounted to $297.53 million, $245.67 million, $175.12 million, $132.05 million, $121.15 million and $28.88 million, respectively.
LUCRATIVE NUMBERS
While the country received remittances amounting to $208.06 million, $210.33 million, $156.36 million, $81.08 million, $95.99 million and $24.53 million, respectively, during the same month in 2010. The remittances received from Norway, Switzerland, Australia, Canada, Japan and other countries during the month of December (2011) were counted at $84.95 million as against $86.76 million received in the same month of last fiscal year.
DETERIORATION FORECASTED
Despite this upward trend in remittances, the analysts foresee further deterioration in the country’s current account by the end of this fiscal year. As the first five months, July-November FY12, already saw a deficit of 2.1 billion against a negligible $ 589 million of last year. Trade balance, standing negative at $6.4 billion against 2011’s $4.6 billion, is another attributing factor cited by economic observers while reasoning widening of the current account deficit.
REFLECTION
This situation, the analysts believe, is reflecting adversely on the rupee value in the currency market where the demand for the greenback is higher in the inter-bank thus making the Pakistani currency depreciating to a new low of Rs91.20 against dollar. The currency dealers, however, attribute the current slump to an increased forward-booking of the dollar by the traders on a higher rate of Rs94 for six months. The analysts, however, forecast more devaluation in rupee value owing to a widening trade and current account balance.
