With Senate elections being held in February instead of March, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), though short of clear simple majority, will emerge as the single largest party in the Upper House of parliament, keeping its relevance in parliamentary politics even if it does not form a government after the general elections.
The PPP is likely to win 22 more seats in the Senate, which would take its tally of senators to 44. Fifty percent of the members of the Senate will be elected, as an equal number of senators will retire in March 2012. Behind-the-scenes efforts by the ruling party have already been initiated to avoid the election process and settle the matter through seat adjustment with other political parties, keeping in view the purported threats to the coalition government. Moreover, the ruling party would be losing five incumbent senators following the termination of their term if new senators are elected through the sitting assemblies. Those retiring from the ruling party include stalwarts like Mian Raza Rabbani, Babar Awan and Safdar Abbasi. In contrast, the major ally of the PPP – the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) – would be the major loser by letting go its 20 members of a total 21. However, the party may also win six more seats through a seat adjustment formula with the PPP, and one senator may be elected from Punjab. The major PML-Q men retiring include former information minister Mohammad Ali Durrani, Jan Mohammad Jamali, Wasim Sajjad, Lt Gen (r) Javed Ashraf Qazi, Jamal Leghari and SM Zafar. Apart from the PML-Q, the JUI-F would also lose seven of its sitting senators. The PML-N would emerge successful, as it would bag another six senators taking its total to 12. The Jamat-e-Islami (JI) which has three members, one each from PkMAP and Jamhoori Watan Party (JWP) would disappear from the senate as they have no representation in the national and provincial assemblies, the electorate for the senate. Senators of ANP retiring include Ilyas Bilour.
After a thorough calculation and interaction with officials of the Election Commission of Pakistan, it was found that of 64 general seats, seven members would be elected from Punjab on general seats, two on women seats and one on technocrat seat. Punjab Assembly Since Punjab Assembly has strength of 371 members, any candidate would require at least 53 votes to get elected. Since the PML-N is the majority party in the Punjab Assembly with the support of 186 members, it would get at least four members elected on general seats.
The remaining of two seats would be left for the PPP, who has a strength of 107 members. The PML-Q has the support of around 54 members and the remaining 30 members have either been re-elected on PML-N ticket or formed a forward bloc, so both parties can get one seat each by supporting each other. Of the two women seats, one would be easily grabbed by the PML-N while the other would be won by a PPP and PML-Q joint candidate. So the PPP would have to either adjust a PML-Q member on the technocrat or women’s seat. One technocrat seat would go to the PML-N, while the other would go to the PPP-PML-Q alliance. So, out of total 11 seats, the PML-N would win seven seats, three would go to the PPP and one might be bagged by the PML-Q.Sindh Assembly: In Sindh Assembly, elections would be held for seven general seats, two women and two technocrat seats. Since the Sindh Assembly has strength of 168 seats, 24 members have to vote to elect a member. Since the PPP has strength of 93 members, the ruling party may win four general seats out of total seven. The MQM would regain their two seats while one seat may be dished out to either the PML-Q or the PML-F if they join hands to win a seat.
While two women and two technocrats seats would also be shared by both the parties by winning one each on technocrat and women seats. So the final result may be that the PPP bags six, four seats would go to the MQM, while one seat may either go to the PML-Q or the PML-F, as both have eleven and eight members each. However, it would only be possible if the likeminded group also joins the PML-Q, otherwise, the PPP would win this seat also. So the PPP and coalition partners would have seven seats won from Sindh, while four would go to the MQM.
KP Assembly: In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly, any candidate would at least need 18 votes to get elected on a general seat. Since the Awami National Party (ANP) is the largest political force with 49 members, the ruling party would most likely win three seats with PPP’s support, while the PPP, who has strength of 30 MPAs, may win one or two seats if the PML-Q’s six MPA decide to support coalition partners. Ten independent members may play their cards carefully and their support may also thwart chances of the MMA, who also has fourteen members. So if the MMA is able to get support from either the PPP-Sherpao, who has six MPAs, it can win a seat, while one seat may go to those supported by independent candidates. The ANP and the PPP may win two seats each on technocrat and women seats with the support of independent MPAs and their coalition partners. So the ANP may win six seats, the PPP may get four seats, while the MMA may win one seat.
Balochistan Assembly: In Balochistan, any candidate would need the support of nine members to get elected as a senator. In a House of 65 members, the PML-Q is majority party with 18 members, but the party has been in tatters and there is no control by party chief Shujaat Hussain over his party’s MPAs. The PPP is the second largest party with a strength of 13 MPAs.
Both parties would bag the lion’s share of the seven general seats. The PML-Q may win five seats, three general seats and one each on women and technocrats seats, while the PPP may also get four seats, two general and one seat each on technocrat and women seats. The MMA, mostly comprising of the JUI-F, would bag one general seat with nine MPAs, while Balochistan National Party-Awami (BNP-A) may also get one general seat.
Federal Capital: From the federal capital’s reserved seats, elections would be held for one general and one technocrat seat. Both seats would be won by the PPP with the support of its allies.
FATA: Four people would be elected from FATA as four senators are retiring. Of the four seats, each party would field candidates as the Political Parties Act has been extended to FATA.
Minorities: Of the four seats reserved for minorities, elections would be held on two seats and the coalition government, the PPP, may win both slots of minority seats. Therefore, the final tally may be that the PPP likely wins 22 seats, seven seats might be bagged by the PML-N, six may go to the PML-Q, six might be grabbed by the ANP, two seats might be bagged by the MMA or the JUI-F, MQM may get another four seats and the BNP-A may win one seat. However, another four members would be elected from FATA, but since the electoral college comprises of independents, there is no clue which party would win these seats.
