The year of hope?

We’ll muddle through…

Will 2012 be the year of hope or despair? It is difficult to give a categorical response to this question. However, the probability is that the New Year will be a period of more hope and less despair.

It is going to the year of change for some improvement, although this is going to be far below the expectation of people. The general elections are expected to be announced any time after July and these are likely to be held before the end of the year.

The PPP’s current concern appears to be the holding of the Senate elections by mid-March 2012. They would like to give the election budget in June in order to win back the lost popular support by offering some economic concessions. This is expected to set the stage for the next general elections.

Meanwhile uncertainty and confusion will persist and the PPP-led federal government will continue to struggle for survival in the face of lopsided opposition by the PML(N) and the fallout of politically loaded cases before the pro-active Supreme Court that appears to be determined to root out all deficiencies and corruption from the political system.

Even if the Supreme Court gives an adverse judgment for the federal government on the memo, the federal government is not expected to collapse except if the National Assembly decides to remove it or some extraordinary crisis makes it dysfunctional. It is likely to manage until mid-year but it is not expected to have an easy ride partly because of its incapacity to overcome its deficiencies and partly because the PML(N) and the PTI of Imran Khan will continue with their efforts to dislodge it.

The military top brass may not be happy with the federal government and they diverge from the federal government on the memo. They do not have a practical option available to them to dislodge it and assume power directly or install a government of their choice. The military top brass will encounter more serious problems in handling domestic issues and foreign policy in the absence of an elected civilian government. They may like to clip the wings of the federal government and wield influence from the sidelines.

The last year (2011) was a difficult period for Pakistan so far as governance, political management and handling of foreign policy and security issues were concerned. Karachi experienced violence for several months. The federal and Balochistan governments gave reasonable attention to development of Balochistan by implementing the “Aghaz-e-Haqooq-e-Balochistan” programme, recruiting more Baloch to the army, stopping the construction of new cantonments and turning some military facilities into academic institutions for all. However, as long as kidnapping and killing of politically active Baloch is not checked, no amount of development work will reduce alienation and dissident activity.

Islamic militancy and Taliban-related terrorist incidents and suicide attacks declined as compared to 2010. The continuous counter-terrorism in the tribal areas by the army and paramilitary has reduced the autonomous space for the extremists who are not able to easily train suicide bombers as they used to do in the earlier period. This is despite some high profile terrorist incidents like the killing of the Punjab Governor and a federal minister and the attack on a naval base in Karachi.

However, one negative development is the resurgence of overt political activity by Islamic militant groups (including some banned organisations) in the Punjab in the form of anti-US public rallies. It seems that the military-intelligence establishment has encouraged them so as to show to the international community that the Pakistani populace is outraged at American attack on the border security posts in November 2011. This may help to achieve some immediate political objectives but these very groups will be an obstacle for the military and the civilian government when they decide to normalise their relations with the US. Religious extremism and terrorism will continue to be serious challenges but the frequency and level of violence is not expected to be higher than the last year.

Pakistan will work towards improving relations with India in 2012. It will also pursue the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project and take steps to get electricity from there. Despite the floods in Sindh in 2010-2011, agriculture is expected to show increased production that will keep the rural economy in a reasonable shape. In addition to foreign remittances some professions like banking, food and catering, telecommunication, information technology and real estate/construction will provide opportunities for earning reasonable livelihood.

The political and societal situation is not expected to decline further. Rather, it will recover somewhat and the federal and provincial governments will be forced to pay greater attention to the problems and issues of the common persons because of the forthcoming general elections.

Pakistan is expected to disappoint the prophets of gloom or doom who talk of the collapse of the state and society. Pakistan is expected to continue facing internal contradictions and problems but it will move onwards. Society has enough resilience and good agricultural crops help rural economy and protect against starvation. Its enterprising people inside and outside of Pakistan are a major source of support to the economy which is likely to continue. International financial and diplomatic support is another source of strength. These factors will enable the state to maintain itself.

A recently published book The Future of Pakistan edited by Prof Stephen P Cohen (Brookings Institution, Washington DC, December 2011) contains 17 excellent articles by different writers from the US, the UK, Norway, India and Pakistan on Pakistan’s direction in the near future. Making a concise review of historical background, current issues and challenges and how it has dealt with domestic and foreign policy and security issues, different trajectories have been identified for the future. The general consensus is that the “current establishment-dominated state” is likely to muddle through its problems rather than collapse.

The signs of “muddling through” are going to be more noticeable this year as Pakistan addresses its multiple crises in an uncertain and conflict prone internal situation and troubled regional environment. Some hope for change is the surge in the appeal of Imran Khan and the realisation on the part of the two major parties – the PPP and the PML(N) – that they need to respond to the demands from within the party and relate with the aspirations of the people in a meaningful manner.

The writer is an independent political and defence analyst.