2012: Expect even more ups and downs
For Pakistanis, 2011 had it all – the good, the bad and the ugly. Recapping events is like going through a roller-coaster ride. Into the 100th hour the shocking murder of Governor Salmaan Taseer by his own police guard followed by the covert CIA operative Raymond Davis’s saga to the embarrassing discovery of the world’s most wanted terrorist in Abbottabad in the dead of the night by invading US Special forces helicopters, to the attack on the Mehran Naval Base to the mysterious high profile abduction and murder of journalist Saleem Shehzad to the international cricket match-fixing shame, from the most hotly contested memo bombshell to the death of Pakistani troops by US-led Nato forces at the Salala border post to the President’s all-too-mysterious illness, departure and return and then return. Peppered throughout 2011 have been strikes, shut-downs and protests against all modes of load-shedding.
From Pakistan’s perspective, it was undoubtedly an extremely significant year both on the domestic and diplomatic fronts. Certain events proved to be a blessing in disguise, a wake-up call and a turning point for the country in reclaiming its lost ground – sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Raymond Davis episode in January, the US commando operation in Abbottabad in May that killed Osama Bin Laden and the unprovoked airstrike on the Pakistani border posts last month forced the top political and military leadership towards a fundamental review of its flawed policies towards the US and international cooperation in the war against terrorism.
Interestingly, 2011 also cleared deliberately created ambiguities on issues like the US military presence and CIA footprints in Pakistan, the drones parked and operated from our military base. Also the little known but most talked about post 9/11 security agreements and MOUs between Pakistan-US and Nato also surfaced after almost a decade under pressure from the parliament. It ended the myth of the Pak-US strategic partnership.
While shocking revelations, scandals, judicial activism, protests, rallies, suicide attacks, explosions and palace intrigues marked the year, it ends with guarded optimism of beginnings of a positive change in the offing; maybe more accountability, more serious policy-making and more responsive to protesting peoples’ concerns. On US especially, more chances of wisely crafted policies; responding to the US-led NATO-ISAF forces attack, quick and significant decisions including boycotting the Bonn conference and refusing land transit to NATO supplies, made at the DCC meeting. There is now talk of Pakistan focussing on regional trading bloc involving Iran, Russia and China.
Who could have ever thought that we would finally see the back of most CIA operatives, an end to the deadly dronse attacks, American troops and military hardware out of the Shamsi Airbase, passage to US-Nato supplies denied for over a month and finally Chairman Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf(PTI) Imran Khan emerging as a serious third force on the country’s political horizon.
The once marginalized PTI with huge rallies and having pocketed Shah Mahmud Qureshi and JavedHashmi and others, is a definite third force. Many see Imran Khan as the credible leader who can pull Pakistan out of the current crisis.
But some things never change. On December 25th when all private TV news channels did live telecast of Imran’s historic rally in Karachi the more loyal than the king state PTV News opted to focus on Sino-Pak currency agreement and trade relations! As always a little out of touch!
The government’s popularity graph is now at its lowest and disillusionment with state of affairs at its peak. With major state enterprises like the Railways, Pakistan Steel Mills and PIA on the verge of a collapse, unending and unannounced gas-shedding and electricity outages, runaway inflation, and rising unemployment have sparked country-wide agitation and rallies calling for the PM’s resignation and early elections.
As the year ends, there is the legal battle over which should be the forum for conducting inquiry over memo issue, whether the apex court the parliamentary committee on national security. All this is taking place against the backdrop of ongoing civilian-military and government-judiciary tensions.
In the closing hours of 2011, CNG dealers are also threatening to go on a strike. Will the power and gas-shedding hours increase dramatically, hurting businesses beyond a point of no return? Will angry protests by people living on the edge eventually turn more violent and lead to civil disorder? On the home front, these are the serious challenges that welcome the government and the people into the year 2012.
The writer is a senior journalist and has been a diplomatic correspondent for leading dailies. She was an Alfred Friendly Press Fellow at The Chicago Tribune in the US and a Press Fellow at Wolfson College, Cambridge, UK. She can be reached via email at [email protected]
