One of the world’s most influential figures and the “Generalissimo” of the North Korean nation passed away owing to “great mental and physical strain” on Saturday. However, his death has been announced by the North Korean government today. King Jong-il was a cult figure much like his father Kim Il-Sung, and North Korea is anticipating that ‘heir apparent’ Kim Jong would follow suit – even though apprehensions over his upbringing, biography and qualification still remain. The news has reverberated all over the globe and the repercussions are going to encompass all global powers and the myriad of stakeholders. What the newsflash has also done is that it has upset the applecart of Asian markets, as stocks take a nosedive.
As Asian stocks plummeted, earlier losses sparked by Fitch Ratings were extended, and there is authentic concern that the aftereffects might cut credit ratings of European nations. Hong Kong’s HSBC Holdings Plc (Europe’s biggest lender), Samsung Electronics in South Korea, China Overseas Land and Investment Ltd and Billabong International Ltd in Australia were all on the receiving end of a stock market walloping. And it’s only natural, considering the fact that whenever something unforeseen takes place the instinctive reaction of the dealers is to lunge towards safety. Obviously the news of the death and its concerns catered far and wide and the shares of financial companies and European exporters also fell owing to the fear that earnings might decline if the region’s sovereign debt-crisis were to expand.
The timing of King Jong-il’s death has been quite inopportune for the west, as things were beginning to approach something bordering on tranquility on the North Korean front, with the North Korean hierarchy conspicuously gesturing towards suspension of a few fragments of its nuclear programme. This by no means implies that all the aforementioned developments are dead and buried; but that all the noises and trends that was whetting the appetite of western powers might be shelved for the time being. Of course, much like pretty much every place on the world map, US has a special concern with regards to North Korea. And hence as the administration changes hands, Washington will be keeping a watchful eye on the unfolding events.
North Korea and US have had a long ‘love hate’ relationship – more hate than love, one has to admit – tracing all the way back to the Korean war. And recently Washington had been busy imposing the nuclear nonproliferation treaty and its skewed facets at Pyongyang and the latter has kept on smacking them out of the ball park. However, considering the fact that US had become one of the foremost aid donors of North Korea after the culmination of the Korean war in 1953, intermittent agreements pertaining to Pyongyang taking the foot off the gas over its nuclear armaments programme were said to be on the horizon. Now, with the heir apparent donning the garb of sovereignty, the American-North Korean relationship and indeed other allied matters might have to be reshaped into a new sculpt.
US has agreed on providing food aid to North Korea in a recent meeting between the two nations in Beijing and in turn North Korea gave its word about suspension of its uranium enrichment. Obama and Kin Jong Il recommenced talks over the matters concerning their nations in October as well; for, despite upping the ante in sanctions the Korean leader didn’t move an inch away from his stance over the nuclear programme. Washington in turn has been unequivocal in their stance that any further bilateral talks depend upon North Korea transforming its “provocative behaviour”.
Neighbour South Korea, meanwhile, are on a high alert as uncertainty regarding the actions in the northern vicinity persists. And as far as the South Korean market is concerned, its central bank would have an eye fixed on the matter and might even eye international cooperation if things threaten to blow out of proportion. There are massive implications for South Korea in whatever North Korea vies to conjure up, but in the current nitpicky situation, the potential consequences are predictably gargantuan.
Domestically, in North Korea, there are also veritable concerns with regards to a potential Military coup. However, experts opine that since the country has braced itself for succession for a good part of a year, the likelihood of either a coup or indeed an uprising among the masses is minimal. It is also being predicted that since Kim Jong Un is a relative newbie and is inexperienced, his complete takeover would take its time and that a governing body should be at the helm till the new leader is considered ripe enough to orchestrate matters on his own.
The writer is Sub-Editor,
Profit. He can be reached at [email protected]
