Sources close to the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project have revealed to Profit that Pakistan is coming under increasing pressure from America to abandon the arrangement as Iran’s relationship with the west descends to fresh lows and war clouds gather over Tehran.
“There is a very real threat of the Iran-Pakistan gas project being abandoned. Islamabad is under immense pressure from Washington to ditch the project as the likelihood of a war with Iran is growing by the day,” said a senior official in the Iran-Pakistan gas project on the condition of anonymity.
Rock bottom
Relations between Pakistan and the US have hit rock bottom following the deadly NATO attacks on two Pakistani check posts close to the Afghan border that killed 24 military men. Pakistan’s army and government have reacted strongly, by cutting NATO supply-line and asking the US to vacate the Shamsi airbase.
Pakistan has long resisted western pressure to decouple from Iran, especially since the latter’s alleged quest for nuclear weaponry prompted widespread condemnation and sanctions in an international effort spearheaded by Washington. And while there has been considerable debate within Islamabad, recent Pak-US friction has underscored the need for Pakistan to safeguard its own energy interests.
Sources in Islamabad’s intelligentsia privy to confidential information told Profit that “Pakistan is in a severe existential crisis. Coupled with the embittered relationship with the US, our ally in the war on terror, there is a prevailing view that Pakistan must keep its options open in the quest for energy and not succumb to US pressure.”
Suitable alternative
Pakistan has been repeatedly advised to consider the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) pipeline as a suitable alternative, a project Islamabad considers unviable in light of uncertainties regarding the pipeline’s passage through large areas of unstable and hostile Afghan territory. “We need to look at ground realities here. Both projects have been in the planning phase since 1992. Since the US invasion of Afghanistan, the country is hardly stable. The US-installed Afghan government is considered hostile towards Pakistan. To think it would be wise for us to invest billions of dollars in the TAPI pipeline that is to pass through Afghanistan would be a fatal error on our part,” said the Iran-Pakistan project official. According to conservative estimates, approximately 40 per cent of Afghanistan is still controlled by the Taleban. Then there is the problem of Afghan war lords enjoying US patronage, and it would not be a surprise if they heavily tax the gas pipeline. In a recent article in the New York Times, the author has claimed that another reason why Pakistan has kept its options open is the inherent distrust of the military leadership in the capability of the 170,000-strong Afghan army.
Pakistan feels the Afghan military might be vulnerable to breaking up into smaller factions in the event of a US withdrawal. This would have serious repercussions for Pakistan, if it comes to rely on gas entering Pakistan from a volatile and insecure Afghanistan.
Cost-benefit feasibility
“The Iran option is certainly more feasible. On paper, work is in progress and feasibilities are being finalsed. This project is a multifaceted one, with more than $3.5 billion in costs involved. This would require serious funding. Financing, is therefore a big project challenge,” sources in the IP project revealed. “Stakeholder consultation, along with social and environmental impact assessments, is being carried out. We are working on a timeline here, and if the infrastructure on our part is not ready by say 2014, then Iran will start charging us a significant amount every day, whether we utilise the gas or not.” With mounting global pressure on Iran, and the UN moving sanctions on the country, the likelihood of a full scale war is increasing by the day. Some analysts feel Iran’s quest for nuclear enrichment material – which it insists is being utilised for civilian nuclear energy programmes – will threaten the security of Israel. Iranian President Ahmedinijad and Iran’s military high-command have been very vocal about their opposition of the west.