To our super-patriots

Discretion is the better part of valour

Thank goodness the nationwide frenzy stirred by our super-patriotic but lazy anchors, members of establishment and others on the Nato-ISAF attack and Memogate is somewhat on the wane. Until now, public emotions and fear of the establishment were so strong that no TV analyst or newspaper columnist could dare express doubt or question the official line. However, Pakistanis are back to coping with the perennial issues of “Bijlee, Pani aur Mahngai” which have made ordinary Pakistani’s life miserable, or in Hobbes’s words “brutish, nasty and short”. The question is who benefited from it.

There can be no doubt that the frenzy was irrational and has damaged Pakistan’s international position so badly that it may take years to recover from it. Pakistan’s regional and international isolation has further intensified and its international credibility is down to zero. Aside from its diplomatic situation, Pakistan’s economic condition has also suffered further loss: its stock markets have lost many points since then, the value of its currency has declined by more than 10%, while government borrowing has exceeded Rs 3 trillion, flight of capital has increased manifold, unemployment and underemployment have increased, corruption is at an all time high, and the law and order situation remains precarious. In short, the sense of insecurity in the public has aggravated and the political situation – already unstable – has been further destabilised. The back of the nation has reached a breaking point.

Nevertheless, our PM, parliamentarians and the establishment did not hesitate or think twice about boycotting the Bonn conference on Afghanistan. According to newspaper reports, our COAS has given local commanders permission to fire at all intruding forces without permission from the high command. On the other hand, the reaction of President Obama, senior officials of his administration, Nato secretary general and others has so far been muted. Since the Nato attack was undoubtedly deliberate and it was known to the crew of its helicopters and fighter planes that both Pakistani posts were manned by its soldiers, their expressions of regret and sorrow may not be sincere. Nevertheless, discretion being the better part of valour, we should accept them at face value and use them for damage control.

The Bonn conference was held without us and our boycott did us no favours. It took some far-reaching decisions and the western countries are economically and militarily capable of implementing them without our help. Although Pakistan’s cooperation would help them in achieving their goal of a stable, more peaceful and terrorist-free Afghanistan, post withdrawal of US forces in 2014, it is not an indispensable condition for West’s success in the war against terrorism. Therefore, our non-cooperation can at best only slow down their victory but will not deter them from pursuing this objective.

On the other hand, these countries are in a strong position to damage Pakistan economically, diplomatically and militarily. Pakistan is under heavy foreign debt to western countries and west-dominated international financial institutions and is not in a position to pay its debts or even service it without the assistance of these countries and institutions. Some Pakistanis may believe that we can simply commit a default, like some Latin American countries in the past, but that may result in the confiscation of all of Pakistan’s moveable and immovable properties abroad. In other words, PIA, National Shipping Corporation, foreign branches of Pakistani banks etc will cease to exist. Our foreign trade will come to a standstill, and foreign investment – already low – will dry up completely for umpteen years to come.

Militarily also, Nato can inflict irreparable damage to our armed forces and all our economic and military infrastructures, in case we try to blackmail the West by threatening to use or sell nuclear weapons to radical countries or groups. Letting safe havens exist for terrorists to plan 9/11 like attacks will surely lead to massive military repercussions. There should be no doubt in our minds or that of our military leaders that the West will not take military action against us for fear of our nukes or their falling into the hands of terrorist. Nothing would serve militant groups more than conflict escalating between Pakistan and Nato as they could capitalise on the resultant chaos.

Some of our super-patriots may consider such practical thinking as an act of cowardice on my part. But there are tens of thousands of Pakistanis like me who are neither lackeys of the West nor afraid to uphold the honour and dignity of Pakistan when required. But we do not believe in adventurism at the cost of Pakistan’s integrity and independence. I, therefore, hope that my advice will be taken as a realistic and patriotic assessment of our situation by all concerned rather than as act of cowardice.

The writer is a former Ambassador of Pakistan