US-Pakistan conflict risk higher than India-Pakistan

By
fraaz
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14
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An influential US think-tank has rated a conflict with Pakistan as among the top potential threats facing the United States in 2012, but downgraded the potential for military escalation between Pakistan and India, US media reported on Saturday.
A survey by the Washington based Council on Foreign Relations released elevated risk of US conflict with Pakistan triggered by an attack or counter-terrorism operation amid high tensions in 2011 following the US operation that killed Osama bin Laden.
But a severe Indo-Pak crisis that carries risk of military escalation, triggered by major terror attack was downgraded from the top to Tier Two contingencies affecting countries of strategic importance to the United States that do not involve a mutual defence treaty commitment.
The Council’s Centre for Preventive Action anonymously surveyed US officials and experts to compile an annual list of the most plausible conflicts for the United States in the new year.
Besides a US conflict with Pakistan, the 2012 list elevated several contingencies to the top tier of risks: an intensified euro crisis, which could plunge the US back into recession; the threat of a cyberattack; and a Saudi instability, which would threaten global oil supplies.
Threats that remained at the top of the list from last year included a potential incident between the United States and China involving US or allied forces, internal instability in Pakistan, intensified nuclear crises with Iran or North Korea, and a spillover of drug-related violence from Mexico.
“The United States has a dismal record of forecasting instability and conflicts. Presently there is no systematic US government process linking forecasting to contingency planning. This survey is intended to meet that need,” said CFR fellow for conflict prevention Micah Zenko, who conducted the survey.

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14 COMMENTS

  5. fantastic news…..lets get this confrontation over and done with…good news for indians…without lifting a finger they will get a huge parking lot opened next to them ..hahahahh

  6. The risk is more for Americans; not for Pakistan and Pakistanies. Americans at this critical juncture needs Pakistan's support, which if Pakistan holds back, will make Americans to lick the dust. No cosmatic support from India will come to help Americans in Afghanistan. And Afghanistan will become a graveyard for them.

    Until now Americans have acted over confidently. They have over estimated themselves in every respect and have wrongly under estimated Pakistan. But now, if they really mean business on equel level, they have to respect Pakistan's sovernighty as an independent state. Otherwise there's no way Pakistan, which until now, have acted responsibly and accepted every pressure, can be made to do what Washington wants to.

    SHAHID HUSSEIN QABOOLPURIA,
    LAHORE, PAKISTAN

  7. Pakistan survival lies in defeat of Its GHQ & its production Taliban. Lets hope Americans can destroy it & do some good to humanity this time & can pay for their sins they have committed in the past as it was CIA who has helped created this monster.

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