A flurry of palpitations…
There is never a dull moment in Pakistani politics. Just when the ubiquitous media pundits and discussants hopping from one electronic channel to the other were having a field day over Memogate came the news of President Zardari’s illness and his sudden departure for Dubai.
The news was manna for Zardari-haters who have been praying for and predicting his downfall for a long time. The section of the media that has never hidden its hatred for the ailing president has run amok at his expense. The PPP propaganda machine in its typical ham-handed fashion has added to the confusion.
According to one media report, Zardari had a mild stoke and bleeding in the brain. Another report buttressed by the US-based Foreign Policy magazine’s scoop that the president was incoherent while talking to President Obama on the phone suggested that he had a nervous breakdown.
The president’s spokesman strongly refuting these reports claimed that he had gone to Dubai for a routine check-up. The PM house underplaying the president’s ailment suggested that he had mild chest pains and had gone to Dubai only on the insistence of his family.
Whatever the truth about his real ailment and condition, it is certain that the president had not gone abroad for a routine medical check-up and his illness, although not critical, is cause for serious concern.
The fact that the prodigal son Bilawal Bhutto arrived in Islamabad on the eve of the president’s departure raised eyebrows. Under normal circumstances, Bilawal, just 22 years old, would have been installed by his father. Based in London and Dubai, Bilawal is gradually being groomed for the job.
Under the supervision of Pakistan’s high commissioner in London Wajid Shams ul Hasan, he was being taught to read, write and speak Urdu. The undue haste shown to install him betrayed a certain sense of emergency pregnant in the situation.
Some reports claim that the president will be back in a couple of days. Most indicators, however, suggest otherwise. The President meeting Chairman Senate Farooq Naek just before his departure probably means that he himself was envisaging a longer absence from the country.
Contrary to speculations and wishful thinking in certain quarters, Zardari has not thrown in the towel as yet. Short of impeaching him, for which the opposition lacks the necessary numbers, there is no easy way to get rid of him.
However, there is no denying the fact that his illness came at a time when he was beleaguered from all sides. The tension permeating the air probably contributed to the medical episode.
According to speculations, the proactive role being played by the apex court in Memogate and upholding its earlier NRO verdict has exponentially increased the stakes for the PPP-led coalition. The whistleblower US-based businessman Mansoor Ijaz has proved to be a one man demolition squad, the proverbial bull in a china shop.
He claimed that he had gone to town on Haqqani when he saw US Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen’s name being sullied by Pakistan. And as a US citizen, he could not take it lying down.
In a revealing interview with Fareed Zakaria on CNN, Mansoor Ijaz lambasts the ISI to no end claiming the “S Wing” of the intelligence agency and the Pakistani military operates in very nefarious ways, not only in Pakistan but by intervening in Afghanistan as well.
When asked by Zakaria that the net effect of what Mansoor had done was to undermine the democratically elected branch of the (Pakistani) government and empower the very people he claimed to be opposed to, he lamely replied that “a strong Pakistan would emanate from this.”
There is a lot wrong with the ISI and its invasive role in Pakistani politics and in promoting jihadists in the past. When Pakistani politicians like Nawaz Sharif or media persons criticise the ISI for the sake of reform, it is welcome. However, when mavericks like Ijaz go to town on Zardari, ISI and Pakistan itself it should not be bought hook, line and sinker by the establishment, the politicians and, for that matter, the courts.
Ijaz has also made the fantastic claim that Zardari and Haqqani had prior knowledge of the US Navy SEALS raid on Abbottabad on May 2, vehemently denied by the US Ambassador to Pakistan Cameron Munter. According to Ijaz, the plan to send the memo was made by none other than Zardari himself. It is obvious who the ultimate target of the maverick US-based Pakistani businessman is. It is not Haqqani, Zardari, the military and the ISI but Pakistan itself.
Nawaz showed undue haste in going to the Supreme Court for a probe of Memogate and as former president of the Supreme Court Bar Association (SCBA) Asma Jehnagir said, got immediate relief without the accused party even being heard.
The apex court will hear the case on 17 December hopefully with the consciousness of the implications of its verdict on the future of Pakistan. It will be interesting to see the written statements of the COAS and the ISI chief. A lot will depend on the decision.
Bruce Riedel, the US expert who helped Obama in formulating policy towards Pakistan, has predicted that “the façade of a civilian government with very little power is likely to continue in Pakistan.” According to the former CIA official and Clinton aide, the army is installing a new military dictatorship without even resorting to a coup.
Nawaz Sharif in his latest statement has said no to military rule in Pakistan, claiming that country cannot afford another martial law. His commitment to democracy will come under severe test in the days to come. Independent courts, a vibrant opposition and a free media are the biggest guarantee for a stable democracy. Easier said than done, under the circumstances.
The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today