Both countries stand to lose
As if the older disputes were not enough, the US and Pakistan have added a new one to the list. Differences over the reasons leading to the NATO attack on two Pakistani posts in Mohmand that killed 25 Pakistani troops have exacerbated misunderstandings and given birth to new suspicions. Pakistan has now concluded that the air strikes were a pre-planned conspiracy on the part of NATO/ISAF. The US claims that before ordering the action, it had checked with the Pakistan military to see if there were friendly troops in the area and it was told there were not. This claim has led to outrage and has been questioned. It is now being suggested by Islamabad that the CIA was behind the mischief. As the role of the American spy agency has increased in the conduct of war in Afghanistan, the charge may not be out of place.
The recall of some of the liaison officers from two border coordination centres by Pakistan was seen as an act of escalation by the US. On the other hand, the hint by Washington of the risk of another such incident occurring in the absence of the centres was taken as a concealed threat. Pakistan has now upgraded its air defence system on the Afghan border to make it capable of shooting down aircraft making any threatening move. Reportedly, the system has also been upgraded to immediately respond after detecting any hostile aircraft or helicopter. This will increase, rather than reduce, the possibility of a clash between the two sides.
Another bloody incident on the Pak Afghan border is bound to have horrendous consequences both for Pakistan and the US. Pakistan will find it hard to replace any military aircraft lost in the combat thus ending up weakening its own defence. The US will face an unprecedented backlash of hostile public opinion in Pakistan. What is more, its capacity to fight the extremists in Afghanistan will be badly affected. Any hostilities on the Pak-Afghan border could lead to a long term ban on the Nato supply convoys while ending whatever assistance the two countries provide each other in the struggle against extremist militants. It is in the interest of both the countries to de-escalate confrontation and give diplomacy a chance.
