The bad Pak-US romance
The US is here in Afghanistan till at least 2014. If (for the sake of argument) Pakistan’s blocking of the NATO supplies is anything more than a clever gimmick, the US will need a long-term alternative route. The Russian route is not just uneconomical but some American circles believe that it is also fraught with dangerous implications for the long-term strategic interests of the US. Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan might not let arsenals pass through anyway. Thus with no feasible alternate route, the sordid romance of Pakistan and the US will definitely rekindle, though on a ‘give-more’ basis.
After the incident of 26th November, we suddenly are on the negotiating table with the US again. A lot of Pakistanis believed that we sold our services to the US for peanuts; a chance has come up to revise the price tag – this time on our terms (Who’s the daddy now, eh?). The US isn’t a dumb blonde either; of course it will try to push the figures down one way or the other. All you need is one Mullah Omar popping out of the Pak domain and there goes our army back into their garrisons. The chief just declared ‘suspending’ the chain of command in the event of another breach of sovereignty, proving that the army will settle for nothing less than a renewal of terms.
Meanwhile, the whole nation is cheering Kayani’s new attitude towards the US. But since the two can’t remain divorced for too long (who is to blame when the deal is in dollars and the prospects are in the form of a share in the next Afghan government!), they will soon kiss and make up. The question is who will face all the insults for this volte-face. The government, of course.
2014 happens to be the election year in Afghanistan as well. There is a growing demand on the part of the stakeholders to shift from a presidential form of government to the parliamentary system. If this happens, whether party based on non-party based, the parliament will end up being a mosaic of fragmented constituencies. The now somewhat curbed Taliban will then attain a freer hand in their constituency and that too democratically.
This is a bleak picture for the US. The US’s effort to mollify the Taliban by negotiations in the absence of Pakistan has already fallen flat on its face. Whether the US likes it or not, Pakistan and the Taliban are the biggest stakeholders in this whole scenario, and the twain has to be taken on board, together, and soon. The two are here to stay long after the US is gone. The delusion of strengthening the Afghan National Army with an aim to neutralize either has to end now.
The US’s self-proclaimed objective is nation-building in Afghanistan, but this of course is pure propaganda. If they were serious in building a nation, they would have done it back in 2001 before they destroyed it altogether. For this reason, the stake holders – including President Hamid Karzai – don’t really trust America. The American track record of not looking back once they vacate a destroyed war zone doesn’t help either.
The US has declared that they will continue to fund the Afghan economy, which presently consists of $17 billion, out of which 90% is foreign-funded. The Afghan army laps up $5-6 billion out of this! The US is aware of the fact that the day they leave, tens of thousands of young Afghans who are working for the western military bases and embassies will also lose their jobs, adding even more to the already considerable Afghan troubles.
Ultimately, all sorts of negotiations will have to take place via Pakistan. They have to. The Bonn Conference wasn’t fruitful for the same reason. As evident, Obama has regretted the loss of the slain Pakistani soldiers. The US has even created a commission to review this fiasco and to bring the culprits to justice. PM Gilani has shown a willingness to have workable relations with the US right after Kayani’s order to dismiss the chain of command. Since the foreign policy is in the hands of the establishment, the message to US that the army is willing to play ball if the conditions are right is loud and clear. The conditions of course include money, rules of operation between the two militaries, the shares in Afghanistan, etc.
In the near future, however, it is unlikely the US will go for the non-violent strategy. The NATO supply will resume through Pakistan, and the war on terror will also continue for the time being. And you will see that the politicians who were vociferously deploring this war only a few days back will then rest their vocal chords just like they did on the Kashmir policy till the establishment feels the need to raise the bar for auctioning their services again.
The writer is a member of the band Beygairat Brigade that has recently released the single Aaloo Anday.