The bad Pak-US romance
The US is here in Afghanistan till at least 2014. If (for the sake of argument) Pakistan’s blocking of the NATO supplies is anything more than a clever gimmick, the US will need a long-term alternative route. The Russian route is not just uneconomical but some American circles believe that it is also fraught with dangerous implications for the long-term strategic interests of the US. Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan might not let arsenals pass through anyway. Thus with no feasible alternate route, the sordid romance of Pakistan and the US will definitely rekindle, though on a ‘give-more’ basis.
After the incident of 26th November, we suddenly are on the negotiating table with the US again. A lot of Pakistanis believed that we sold our services to the US for peanuts; a chance has come up to revise the price tag – this time on our terms (Who’s the daddy now, eh?). The US isn’t a dumb blonde either; of course it will try to push the figures down one way or the other. All you need is one Mullah Omar popping out of the Pak domain and there goes our army back into their garrisons. The chief just declared ‘suspending’ the chain of command in the event of another breach of sovereignty, proving that the army will settle for nothing less than a renewal of terms.
Meanwhile, the whole nation is cheering Kayani’s new attitude towards the US. But since the two can’t remain divorced for too long (who is to blame when the deal is in dollars and the prospects are in the form of a share in the next Afghan government!), they will soon kiss and make up. The question is who will face all the insults for this volte-face. The government, of course.
2014 happens to be the election year in Afghanistan as well. There is a growing demand on the part of the stakeholders to shift from a presidential form of government to the parliamentary system. If this happens, whether party based on non-party based, the parliament will end up being a mosaic of fragmented constituencies. The now somewhat curbed Taliban will then attain a freer hand in their constituency and that too democratically.
This is a bleak picture for the US. The US’s effort to mollify the Taliban by negotiations in the absence of Pakistan has already fallen flat on its face. Whether the US likes it or not, Pakistan and the Taliban are the biggest stakeholders in this whole scenario, and the twain has to be taken on board, together, and soon. The two are here to stay long after the US is gone. The delusion of strengthening the Afghan National Army with an aim to neutralize either has to end now.
The US’s self-proclaimed objective is nation-building in Afghanistan, but this of course is pure propaganda. If they were serious in building a nation, they would have done it back in 2001 before they destroyed it altogether. For this reason, the stake holders – including President Hamid Karzai – don’t really trust America. The American track record of not looking back once they vacate a destroyed war zone doesn’t help either.
The US has declared that they will continue to fund the Afghan economy, which presently consists of $17 billion, out of which 90% is foreign-funded. The Afghan army laps up $5-6 billion out of this! The US is aware of the fact that the day they leave, tens of thousands of young Afghans who are working for the western military bases and embassies will also lose their jobs, adding even more to the already considerable Afghan troubles.
Ultimately, all sorts of negotiations will have to take place via Pakistan. They have to. The Bonn Conference wasn’t fruitful for the same reason. As evident, Obama has regretted the loss of the slain Pakistani soldiers. The US has even created a commission to review this fiasco and to bring the culprits to justice. PM Gilani has shown a willingness to have workable relations with the US right after Kayani’s order to dismiss the chain of command. Since the foreign policy is in the hands of the establishment, the message to US that the army is willing to play ball if the conditions are right is loud and clear. The conditions of course include money, rules of operation between the two militaries, the shares in Afghanistan, etc.
In the near future, however, it is unlikely the US will go for the non-violent strategy. The NATO supply will resume through Pakistan, and the war on terror will also continue for the time being. And you will see that the politicians who were vociferously deploring this war only a few days back will then rest their vocal chords just like they did on the Kashmir policy till the establishment feels the need to raise the bar for auctioning their services again.
The writer is a member of the band Beygairat Brigade that has recently released the single Aaloo Anday.
Are you with or against Pakistan?
no…you beg and hope to make up..hahahah
Why does one have to be with or against anyone? He's reporting the facts and giving his best analysis of what will happen next. That's all. Talk about the facts or opinions if you want
This is such a narrow-desperate-isolated-Pakistani stance… Ali Aftab Saeed! when I listened to your song I thought this is the new youth of Pakistan… your were a sign of hope.. but this write up is nothing but ISI/ Military rant delivered through your mouth.
Grow up, for your own sake!
dont be emotional – he s saying wht had been happening in the past… thare is certainly a possibilty of this…dont forget dear, still there are US bases in PAK where our gov/militiary cent get in —-n just look at iran
It is interesting how you keep telling readers: "dont be emotional" "be optimistic" (in response to Sameer)… Ali Aftab Saeed will not have you all the time telling readers that they should perceive his write ups positively…. which is why he should gear up for substance if he seriously wants to become a writer. I disagree with Sameer, if Saeed wants to write, he should, this is great. But he should know that he must learn to address the perspectives of different factions. He should know that his write up can be perceived by different factions in different ways and so should be able to predict those and address them in the write up as much as possible. I do sincerely wish to see him write more and be more himself, than just a mouthpiece. Way to go Saeed.
thought provoking…. Ali describes CRUEL REALITY in his article
Do yourself a favor, stay way from such politicism. You sing, so stick to it, this is clearly not your field of expertise.
be optimistic…highly sanguine – but dont close ur eyes from seeing the facts- this is from history, last updated a few mnths back !!!
True……………..but this decision for us was taken by our elders (politicians), who are working for our benefits….or else their personal benefits…
this shows the state of our leadership messed up ..puppets. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hZOM6sCU1c why the like mee
The writer not only looks like a poofter, he writes like one too.
The policy should be friendly but I appreciate,, Lste,,Field Marshal Ayub Khan’s book title… Friends not masters… اي طاءر لا هوتي اس رزق سي موت……Allama Iqbal poetry. What corrupt pakiatsni leaders defend country… They save their posts,,money,,jagirs,,& loot more with all unfair means…. Normal american citizens are friendly but the politiciains everywhere play with the citizens to get positions…Evil persons have evil friends everywhere…they are all one under Satan,,but good people are not organised to bring friendly atmosphere,,,an example is karzai…
Very right judgement as far as pakistans foreign policy is concerned. So far no civilian leaders has shown the spine to take away foreign policy from the military establishment. The establishment works as a super constitutional authority without any direct responsibility to the people. Whenever the establisment fail like abottabad incident , Meharn attack or recent killing of soldiers at check post the poor civilian authority get blamed for all wrong doing
yeah whos yo daddy eeeh!
But what's your opinion? What do you suggest? These are basic facts that everyone knows. It feels like you can't seem to make up your mind where you stand.
I get what you mean. however personally i feel there is no side one can take. if its peace you want then you have no side. its either the Taliban, our military/establishment or america non of these seem to be looking for peace. it just sad and hopeless. there will never be peace in Pakistan till there is peace in Afghanistan. which seems unlikely in the near future.
Very simple and very true !!!
Reality Bites!
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