Tough sledding ahead

Of tenuous ties and troubled times

Although Pakistan’s envoy to Washington, Hussain Haqqani’s has been shown the door, the controversy generated by the Memogate refuses to die down. In the process, the already tenuous relations between the PPP led-civilian government and the military stand inexorably damaged. It will take a Herculean effort on both sides to restore even a modicum of equilibrium in this lopsided equation in which the military always wins, at least in the short run.

The prime minister while announcing the resignation of Haqqani has also assured that a detailed investigation at an appropriate level into Memogate will be held. The time frame or the level of the proposed inquiry is, however, yet to be disclosed

Gilani showed surprising alacrity in appointing Sherry Rehman as Haqqani’s replacement. Her appointment has confounded most pundits who were confidently predicting that the new envoy to Washington will be a GHQ nominee probably a retired general or a bureaucrat.

Rehman, more of an activist than a politician, is known for her independent views even in her own party. A former journalist, urbane and competent, she is ideally suited for the job. Sherry is certainly not a lackey of the military as some circles amongst the literati are trying to paint her. On the other hand, there is no reason for the military to doubt her credentials, as was the case with Haqqani.

In our feudal milieu, military included, enemies can be forgiven but not renegades. Haqqani falls in the latter category. He started his career as a student activist with right wing views closer to the jihadi philosophy of late general Zia-ul-Haq. Later, he became a born again liberal severely critical of the perceived nexus between the military and the mullahs and veered closer to the late Benazir Bhutto.

Nawaz Sharif finding a window of opportunity in the Memogate affair has decided to fish in troubled waters. Perhaps by moving a petition in the Supreme Court on the issue and naming Zardari, the COAS, the ISI chief and Haqqani as respondents, he wants to kill two birds with one stone. Ostensibly miffed over “the detestable, despicable and treacherous memorandum”, he wants to restore his lost credibility with the military leadership. On the other hand, politically speaking, it is too good an opportunity to miss painting the PPP leadership in a corner.

The leader of the opposition Ch Nisar Ali Khan has raised a number of contradictory questions in the National Assembly relating to Memogate. On one side, he is miffed about why the government took so long in sacking Haqqani while, on the other, he has asked why the envoy was not given a chance to be heard before being axed? According to Nisar, the army has barred Haqqani from leaving the country, while his leader Nawaz Sharif has moved the apex court that Haqqani be put on the ECL (exit control list)- a tool frequently used by the PML(N) government when in power.

Who knows better than Nawaz Sharif about the tenuous nature of relations between civilian governments and the military and its intelligence apparatus? He never got along with any of the military chiefs during his stints as prime minister. Even relations with his handpicked COAS General Musharraf remained strained throughout the period he had to coexist with him. After the Kargil debacle, Musharraf finally ousted him in October 1999. Although no smoking gun was ever found linking it to Sharif, a full-page ad run by some US papers declaring the Pak Army as “a rogue army” was his final nemesis.

Memogate has given impetus to calls for a military takeover especially amongst circles that either do not have a strong philosophical belief in democracy or are simply disillusioned the way things are being run. Some of them – even amongst the media – mistakenly believe that Zardari should be ousted even if it takes extra-constitutional measures. Once we see the back of him things will be somehow hunky dory again, they contend.

Not only will such a course of action be disastrous for Pakistan, the present international environment militates against it. This is not an age of military takeovers as is evident from numerous examples across the globe. The latest example is Egypt where even an interim civilian government under military tutelage has been forced to resign. Unless some adventurers are bent upon making Pakistan a pariah state, a military takeover is not an option.

Thankfully, the military leadership under General Kayani is well aware of the changed environment and has amply demonstrated restraint in dealing with the civilian setup. According to a diplomatic cable sent by the US ambassador to Pakistan in March 2009 during the height of the judicial crisis, and revealed by WikiLeaks, General Kayani had told Anne Patterson that “he might, however reluctantly” pressurise Mr Zardari to resign. Ms Patterson said Gen Kayani made it clear that regardless of how much he dislikes Mr Zardari, he distrusted Mr Sharif even more.

It is too late in the day for Nawaz Sharif to curry favour with the present military leadership. Sharif is the only politician who openly clamours for civilian control and questions their conventional wisdom.

As far as Imran Khan is concerned, despite his meteoric rise, it is too early in the day for him to replace firmly entrenched parties like PML(N) and PPP. Hence, even if it is conceded that Imran Khan is being propped up by the ubiquitous Pakistani establishment as is being alleged by the PML(N), he needs more time.

This does not mean, however, that the PPP-led government will have smooth sailing in days to come. As it is amply evident now, there is no love lost between the army and the civilian setup. The trust deficit has deepened in the aftermath of Memogate.

The apex court has rejected the petition moved by the government to review its earlier decision striking down the NRO. Whatever the legal implications of the decision, its timing could not have been worse for Mr Zardari. It is a pincer move against his government. Multifarious challenges confronting the government can only be met by strengthening the parliament, more transparency in running the affairs of the state and a modicum of better governance.

The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today