PPP’s fear factor

Efforts at dividing the party afoot
Memogate has thrown up interesting possibilities for all, not least the estranged members of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) in Sindh. The knives are being sharpened by those in power against those in government, and top of the priority list is the creation of a new PPP. Step forward, Shah Mahmood Qureshi.
Divide and rule has been the mantra of the Pakistani establishment, they only seek to unite when it suits them. The creation of Imran Khan as a mainstream leader of note has been precisely for the latter: tired of dealing with the many little factions of the Muslim League, and untrusting of all they had created in the past, Khan becomes a single entity that they can deal with. This logic doesn’t hold true for the PPP’s case: having engineered a split in the PPP during the last dictatorship, the rebel faction was subsequently sent to merge and thereby swell the numbers of the PML(Q). The same PML(Q) that now stands with the original PPP. The establishment now finds itself in a situation where another split in the PPP needed to be engineered, for the simple fact that a hung parliament would suit the purpose of removing any government that dared to challenge its hegemony ala Memogate.
Qureshi had, of course, resigned from his post of foreign minister over the Raymond Davis saga. Many had speculated at the time that his resignation was due to some assurances handed to him by his bosses; that were he to turn into another Bhutto to reveal all, there would be a significant place for him in any new set-up.
Following his resignation, Qureshi had headed to Sindh to test some political waters – the answer to which was not as favourable as he was expecting. Qureshi had arrived with a plan of forming a new faction of the PPP, which at the time was being referred to as the Shaheed Benazir Bhutto group. He had expected blessings from Pir Pagaro, chief of the PML(F) and a spiritual leader to many. Pagaro rebuffed the idea at the time, arguing that now (after Qureshi’s resignation) was not the time to form a new party.
But perhaps, Qureshi’s “now” has arrived. And he has Dr Zulfiqar Mirza to thank.
Truth be told, the PPP has once again suffered for not building a party culture to sustain its internal organization. In the absence of such culture, cults of personality are a logical outcome. Mirza galvanised members of the PPP parliamentary party in Sindh like no other. Mirza’s attendance in the Sindh Assembly, much like Chief Minister Qaim Ali Shah’s, was infrequent. But unlike Shah, who would receive a welcome on the basis of being the boss, receptions awarded to Mirza were based on much respect and in some cases, lots of love. Such is the cult of personality that Mirza had begun to develop that in one of the MQM’s boycotts back in March, Mirza was welcomed to the house with a standing ovation, tables thumped, and ‘Jeay Bhutto’ slogans that continued for well over five minutes. This was a leader of the PPP-Sindh, not merely another flatterer of the party leadership. This was a leader cast in the mould of Bhutto.
Mirza’s continued involvement in political affairs, of course, poses the question of where the loyalties of party leaders and activists lie. And while it seems many do desire his return, not many are willing to put their foot firmly in his camp for fear of being chucked out of the party by President Zardari. Yet, some party sources argue that were they to have an alternative to Zardari’s PPP, or “Zardari League”, they may boldly stand by their leader Mirza.
The alternative to the “Zardari League” may formally arrive next week: news reports have already detailed that contact has been made with Mir Murtaza Bhutto’s political heirs for Qureshi’s political show in Ghotki. The new faction was limited to mere talk back then, with many having accepted Mirza as their leader and the leader of their party. This dynamic has changed, with many not entirely happy with Pir Mazhar’s leadership and politicking.
As speculation gathers pace in Karachi regarding who pulls Mirza’s strings, it is clear that Mirza’s agenda and plan is not the same as President Zardari’s. There is an argument that in an Army/ISI versus the United States game, Mirza is firmly on the side of the former – to the extent of siding with the establishment over the elected government. His statement thanking General Kayani for democracy in Pakistan lends credence to this argument.
In overall calculations, dividing the PPP’s ranks has more utility to the establishment than swelling the PTI’s numbers in Sindh. Towards that end, the game centres not around Ghinwa or Fatima Bhutto, but Dr Zulfiqar Mirza. The question really is: can a new PPP handle two new Bhuttos?

The author is a Karachi-based journalist. Connect with him on Twitter @ASYusuf