The third option?

With the restoration of democracy in 1988, the PPP and PML(N) emerged as the two parties who could form governments either single-handedly or in partnership with smaller parliamentary groups. It was a foregone conclusion that whatever coalition came into existence would be headed by either Benazir or Nawaz.
In fact, it took two elections for the situation to crystallise. The PML(N) fought 1988 and 1990 elections as a component of the IJI while the PPP also contested in 1990 under the banner of the PDA. As a result of the two elections, the leaders of the two major parties were elected prime ministers, Benazir in 1988 and Nawaz in 1990.
There was further development in the direction in 1993 and 1997 elections when the two parties faced each other without forming any pre-election fronts. The PPP emerged as the largest parliamentary party in 1993 though it had again to rely on smaller groups for forming the government. The PML(N)’s landslide victory in 1997 provided it an opportunity to form a government without the help of an ally. The trend was generally referred to as a move towards a two party system.
Gen Musharraf’s military coup in October 1999 blocked the natural growth of the system. The military ruler raised a new nursery of politicians besides undertaking large scale political engineering to manipulate desertions from the PPP and PML(N). This gave birth to the PML(Q) which led the new ruling alliance. The 2008 elections however once gain brought the PPP and PMLN to the political center stage leading many to conclude that the country was once again on way to the two party system.
The performance of the PPP at the centre and the PML(N) in the largest province of the country however turned out to be abysmal. The PPP earned notoriety for widespread corruption and bad governance. Attempts by the federal government cover up corruption on the part of party high-ups and allies brought it on several occasions to the collision course with the Supreme Court.
The PML(N) government in Punjab was led by a chief minister with a penchant for keeping all powers concentrated in his own hands. He drove away the PPP from the coalition government. Then for a long time he did not appoint cabinet members to head the key ministries like Education and Health. Even after the completion of the cabinet he ran the administration through handpicked bureaucrats rather than ministers. He treated the officials like a medieval potentate, transferring and dismissing them at will. Shahbaz wasted huge funds on unsustainable projects to gain cheap popularity. The PML(N) thus gradually lost its appeal in its traditional stronghold of Punjab.
The two party system had provided an incentive to the PPP and PML(N) to vie with each other in improving the people’s livelihood. The leadership of the two parties however felt contented with what each one saw as the declining popularity of the other. This assured them that even if they lost one election they were bound to win the next on the basis of the opponent’s bad performance.
With a country with four score political parties registered with the Election Commission, there has never been a shortage of options for the voters. What has been absent however was a realistic alternative. Can Imran Khan prove himself to be a viable option?
As things stand, Imran suffers from four serious handicaps: a limited constituency, lack of a programme with a mass appeal, absence of a countrywide party apparatus and no winnable candidate in view. Imran’s promise of a clean and efficient administration carries an appeal mainly for the new urban middle class comprising highly educated professionals, ‘progressive farmers’ and entrepreneurs fed up with the dynastic politics and the shenanigans of the old guard. The promise however fails to resonate with the much larger section comprising the urban and rural poor, the working class, small landowners and the landless labour. With the state handing over its traditional responsibilities to the private sector this section of society finds itself deprived of facilities like education, basic health care, cheap transport and housing. Unemployment and inflation continue to drive chunks of this section of population towards levels below the poverty line. This large mass of population wants a programme that redresses their grievances.
Fifteen years after the formation of the PTI, the organisation moves around one man, Imran Khan. It has failed to evolve any middle level leadership. The party has not been able to set up branches at provincial levels, let alone lower down. One is not sure if the party will have enough of a cadre to act as election agents for its candidates.
To even think of becoming prime minister, Imran needs a sufficient number of candidates capable of winning the election. He has opened the doors of the PTI for dissidents from other parties. One is not sure how many will come. And even if they come in droves, would it be wise to pin hopes on old sinners to lay the foundation of an honest system?

The writer is a former academic and a political analyst.