The troubled civil-military nexus
It seems difficult for Hussain Haqqani, Pakistan’s ambassador to Washington, to still keep his job. His repeated denials about having written the memo to the outgoing Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen seeking his help to get rid of the COAS General Ashfaq Kayani and the ISI Chief General Shuja Pasha will not amount to much.
Ironically, the whistleblower in this case is the messenger himself. Mansoor Ijaz, an American businessman of Pakistani origin who lists his profession as an international negotiator and a media commentator, is a maverick of sorts. An unabashed publicity monger, this is not his first brush with Pakistan.
At one time, he embarked on a quixotic mission to Indian-occupied Kashmir to resolve the Kashmir dispute. On another occasion, he claimed that he could deliver votes in the US House of Representatives for the passage of the Brown Amendment. He fell out with the Government of Pakistan after its refusal to fulfill his demand of 15 million dollars to deliver votes.
He claims to be closely associated with former CIA Chief James Woolsey. His mission to Sudan for a deal between the Sudanese president and President Clinton for the extradition of bin Laden also failed. The 9/11 Commission did not find any evidence to support his assertion that the Sudanese government would have been willing to extradite bin Laden if the US administration had gone along with his proposal.
The question that begs an answer is how a suave and adroit person like Haqqani who must have known Mansoor Ijaz’s credentials could choose him as an interlocutor for such a sensitive mission? Mr Haqqani is sticking to the story line that no memo was dictated to Mansoor Ijaz by him whom he claims to have met socially only a few times. Ijaz’s Blackberry BBM transcripts and now his categorically naming Haqqani as the “Pakistani official” dictating the memo, however, speak otherwise.
Mansoor Ijaz’s veiled threat that if the Pakistani government’s “vicious cabal” stops telling lies about him he would stop telling the truth about them, has obviously not worked. The truth, as we know it, is finally out. If the memo was initiated in Islamabad as being claimed, whoever advised the course of action has done no service to his masters.
The last straw has been Mike Mullen’s belated acknowledgement of having received the memo. He has claimed that he did not act upon it. Obviously as head of the US armed forces at the time, he was not the appointing authority of the Pakistani military high command.
However his harsh denouncement of the Pakistani military and the ISI in the last few days before his retirement raised many an eyebrow and certainly surprised General Kayani who considered him a personal friend. Now that everything is in the open, the military will link Mullen’s strident tone to the memo. The contents of the memo appearing in the media are extremely damaging for the credibility of the government and it should come out clean by clearly distancing itself from it.
Haqqani should have been doubly careful in not associating himself with this hatchet job. Being author of the book, Pakistan: Between Mosque and Military, which is critical of the alleged nexus between the military and the mullahs, his stock with the military leadership is extremely low. The army was skeptical of his role during the passage of the Kerry Lugar Bill and had demanded his scalp. Mr Haqqani, however, managed to save his job at the time by using his widely acknowledged inter-personal skills.
Mansoor Ijaz claims to have written the damaging article in the Financial Times to ‘protect Mike Mullen’s reputation’. The publicity hound that he is, he could not have done otherwise. What is really surprising is how Haqqani fell right into his trap?
The “Memogate” has far-reaching implications for the future of democracy in the country. It was generally perceived that the military leadership and the civilian government had an excellent working relationship. Unlike his predecessors, President Zardari has been meticulously careful not to ruffle feathers at the GHQ.
The civilian government under him has generally towed the security paradigm dictated by the military. There were voices in the parliament as well as in the media demanding resignation of the ISI chief because of the manner in which the security and intelligence apparatus had remained unaware of the Abbottabad operation. The government however resisted these calls and summoned a joint parliamentary sitting, which was briefed by the ISI chief in the presence of General Kayani.
It is all the more surprising that the government was apprehensive of a coup d’etat when the military itself was on the ropes in the aftermath of the Abbottabad operation.There is, however, a precedent for this: Nawaz Sharif losing his government after the Kargil debacle.
Nawaz rushed to Washington in July 1999 and managed to get a fig leaf for the army to broker a ceasefire with the Indian forces. He begged President Clinton to include Kashmir in the final draft agreement with India arguing that, in the absence of the same, Musharraf would overthrow him as soon as he returns to Islamabad. Later he sent his brother to Washington to extract a statement in support of democracy and constitutionalism. Musharraf did not take this very kindly. The rest is history.
It is unlikely that in the present scenario, history will repeat itself. But another lesson from history is that we are condemned to repeat the same mistakes. It is axiomatic that the air should be cleared without losing more time (as Prime Minister Gilani has assured).
General Kayani is a firm believer in democracy and has kept the army out of active politics. This does not mean that there are elements within the military especially the intelligence community who subscribe to his hands-off policy. That is why this is the most serious crisis of Mr Zardari’s presidency. He has to extricate himself in a manner that does not harm democracy and democratic institutions. If Haqqani has to fall on his sword in the process, so be it!
The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today