Investment strategies in tough times

Global Economic Outlook
Europe’s problems are not all over yet

Europe has been thrust into a debilitating credit crunch debacle. Tough times lie ahead for the eurozone. While everyone is talking about Greece, the big elephant is Spain whose GDP is estimated at $1.49 trillion. Greece fudged the numbers so it could join the EU in the first place, courtesy Goldman Sachs. There’s only one word for what Greece did; fraud. This severe misrepresentation alone should give the rest of Europe the chance to simply kick Greece out of the EU, declare its debts invalid, and end the emerging European credit crunch in its tracks. In Europe however it’s not about the debt crisis; but rather the currency crisis. The reasons are simple and straight forward. Let us analyse the reasons one by one.
Four issues of euro single currency crisis

1. Gap in competitiveness between Northern and Southern Europe is growing. Productivity is down among euro zone members
2. Intra-EMU current account deficit has risen to a level that requires correction
3. Monetary Integration is poisonous from the start.
4. Euro currency is misaligned with various countries in euro zone strategically. Now is it really making progress? Europe is in a messy situation and it is because of Euro single currency since it is historically flawed. Different countries with different culture/ monetary division cannot survive this issue.
Creating an autonomous Europe

You can’t resolve a disease if you don’t even understand what’s causing it. Merkel’s comments are eerily similar to what everyone’s heard from Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson in 2008 when they misdiagnosed a household debt crisis as a banking crisis. Europe must understand that this is a currency crisis and that there is only one true fix – the creation of an autonomous Europe. I think that can best be done via a split in the Euro (which would still require a central Treasury) or dissolution. I have said there is a third option – a United States of Europe. But I can’t expect them to move in the right direction if they still think this is a banking and debt crisis. That will simply lead to bank bailouts and the American disease of bailing out banks without fixing the actual cause of the economic problem.

US govt and its faltering economic policies

Does the US government hate people who save? That may be a little over the top. But then again, what else is left for the Americans to believe when Ben Bernanke, with the full support of President Barack Obama, drives down interest rates to horrifically low levels? President Obama has disappointed the American people. Lack of leadership, the first-ever federal credit downgrade, a failed debt deal, unemployment nearing record levels, fresh warnings of a double-dip recession, and the most toxic political climate in Washington’s history. Given this scenario can you really trust President Obama? And, while he continues to be the mainstream media darling, are you even getting the real story from sources you can trust? I asked this question from many friends based in USA. Mostly said, they are not happy with the government’s working. Confidence is lacking in the US market – that is the main driver for the economy.

STRATEGIC FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

Analysing the 3-months Treasury bills, recently paying out an actual rate of 0.00%. In other words, the government is perfectly content paying investors absolutely nothing for the privilege of taking and using investor’s money. And, Bernanke has already guaranteed that he will not raise interest rates until 2013. In theory, these actions will stimulate the economy. In reality, it certainly punishes those who are saving or looking for income from their investments. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has guided the central bank to “reckless,” inflationary policy that is depressing the economy. The Fed has lowered its predictions for GDP growth to 1.6-1.7 per cent this year from 2.7-2.9 per cent previously, and to 2.5-2.9 per cent next year from 3.3-3.7 per cent previously. Some people might call it over propaganda. I think the U.S. economy is getting worse, and the Fed is constantly having to ratchet down its previous expectations. If data are more accurately reflected the amount of inflation [11% according to Independent economists] that Ben Bernanke is creating, we can see that the real US economy is actually shrinking.

“Trophies” are enormously valuable caches of strategic minerals and commodities. Because they’re so valuable, investors who own them could watch their stakes rise by many multiples. And because commodities rise during periods of high inflation, these TROPHIES are a slam-dunk idea right now. But there are only handfuls that are “Trophy-worthy”. I’m talking about things like energy, precious metals, currency and food. China is busy hunting for the biggest trophies in these categories. Why? Because they have more to lose from inflation than anyone else. As I mentioned, China is sitting on at least a trillion U.S. dollars ($1.14 trillion – according to IMF). Every time the U.S. Government prints more dollars, China’s dollar holdings become worth less. So they’re pouring this cash into “TROPHIES.” I was in New York in August 2011 and talking to Robert Kapito – President Black Rock Assets managing $3.6 trillion who shared his strategy for his clients: 60% in stocks, 20% in short term corporate bonds and 20% in commodities. How big investors can get trophies to ensure that they achieve piece of mind with valued returns by investing in the following 5 trophy investment option.
Global investors are aware of the Athabascan oil basin in Alberta, Canada. It’s well documented. In short, Canada has 175 billion barrels of recoverable oil trapped in sand. This stuff doesn’t gush like a traditional oil well. It’s more like clay or sludge. Extracting it is a messy, expensive and time-consuming process. But with oil over $90 a barrel, it’s well worth the hassle. Athabasca is a HUGE “TROPHY.” Arguably the most valuable trophy asset of any sort in the world for asset portfolio protection. While it is second to Saudi Arabia in terms of oil reserves it is much more valuable because it’s in friendly, stable Canada – not the Middle East. Take position in Oil market as known oil reserves are shrinking. But first, how could this “TROPHY” asset protect you against inflation? Now, take a look at the chart of oil from the past 10 years: Oil – is intrinsically valuable. There’s real demand for it. And there’s a real shortage too. On its own merits, the price of oil is rising. Saudi Arabia is quitting oil business in the next 10-years. Saudi Arabia is making huge investment in SHALE GAS (The next revolution in the energy market) amounting to $130 billion which is roughly 3-years Net Income of Exxon Mobil. This investment is coming from the Saudi Royal family. This is absolutely impressive. I really admire the strategic leadership of the Saudi Royal family for analysing this trend and maneuvering in the right direction as the geo/political landscape is changing at a very rapid pace. Most investment banks and hedge funds are placing massive investment in shale gas companies. TIME Magazine has reported on Shale Gas on April 11, 2011 issue and Financial Times reported on May 8, 2011 about the growing importance of Shale Gas globally.

Investment in Food assets would quadruple investment value going forward. Rice/Sugar/Wheat/Corn are real trophy assets. The United States is home to the most valuable food “Trophy” in the world – the American Midwest. This is a huge chunk of fertile land, right in the middle of the country. The Mississippi River runs right through it, giving producers easy transport access to the Gulf of Mexico. US farmland has skyrocketed – outpacing inflation by 58 per cent. In Iowa, for instance, farmland values have risen 19.7 per cent in the past 6 months and 25.4 per cent this year alone. In Kansas and Nebraska prices of farmland have jumped nearly as much. If investors can refer to TIME magazine article dated 11th July 2011 titled ‘become a farmer’ by Stephen Gandel pages 36-38, it is an eye opener.
My recent visit to New York took a very surprising and interesting turn, when I visited a Chinese bank. Bank of China’s branch in New York was accepting Yuan related deposits. Americans have been accusing Chinese for manipulating its currency according to the Economist magazine Oct 11, 2011 issue. This perception is totally wrong about Chinese currency. Jim Rogers—the commodity expert is taking positions in Chinese Yuan. He shared his strategy when I met him in Singapore two months back. This is a huge development in the currency market. I am bullish on Chinese Yuan/Renminbi currency and have mentioned that on my blog many times that this currency would become a real force in the global currency market. Investors should position in currencies like Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen, Swiss France, Norwegian Krone, Brazilian Real, South Korean Won and Singapore Dollar.
Investors should make their portfolio valuable by investing in dividend paying stocks that provide protection against uncertain economic times. Dividend paying stocks are like hedge against volatile equity market and wealth destruction. In one-week alone from August 1-6, 2011, $3.17 trillion of wealth destruction took place and wealthy investors saw their value going down. Some of the valuable companies that protect and enhance asset portfolios include Unilever, Nestle, Coke, Johnson & Johnson, Pepsi, P&G, Medtronic, General Mills, Cononoc Philips, Aflac, Boeing to name a few. Investors that are in the accumulation phase of their portfolio have the flexibility to seek high total returns from their investments rather than requiring high current yields. I personally advise my clients to analyse a mix of low, moderate, and high yielding investments.
My recent visit to New York took a very surprising and interesting turn, when I visited a Chinese bank. Bank of China’s branch in New York was accepting Yuan related deposits. Americans have been accusing Chinese for manipulating its currency according to the Economist magazine Oct 11, 2011 issue. This perception is totally wrong about Chinese currency. Jim Rogers—the commodity expert is taking positions in Chinese Yuan. He shared his strategy when I met him in Singapore two months back. Investors should position in currencies like Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen, Swiss France, Norwegian Krone, Brazilian Real, South Korean Won and Singapore Dollar.