As the US prepares to withdraw militarily from Iraq and Afghanistan, there is growing talk of Iran filling the vacuum. However, the US is in the process of laying the foundation of a new security architecture for the regions of Middle East and South and Central Asia. Hillary Clinton’s high profile trip to Pakistan and Joe Biden’s to Saudi Arabia last month, provided clues to the shape of this emerging regional security framework.
The recent death of Prince Sultan bin Abdul-Aziz offered a diplomatic opportunity to friends and neighbors of the Saudi peninsula. The US sent a high-powered delegation to Riyadh, headed by Vice President Joe Biden to condole with King Abdullah, and renew their ties of friendship and partnership with the Al Saud family. According to media reports, the delegation included CIA director David Petraeus, Senator John McCain, Clinton-era defense secretary William Cohen, Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus, and the head of CENTCOM General James Mattis.
Joe Biden’s visit would go a long way towards improving US-Saudi relations that were tense over how US disowned its former ally, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt. The statement made by President Obama following Prince Sultan’s passing away, was full of praise for the Saudi royals, “He was a strong supporter of the deep and enduring partnership between our two countries forged almost seven decades ago in the historic meeting between President Roosevelt and King Abd al-Aziz Al Saud.”
The US is being crystal clear in their backing for the monarchy, despite the numerous civil and gender rights problems in the country. The show of support and friendship from the US was also a signal to the rest of the region, and the Saudi population that the US is dug-in with the Saudis and condemnation of the monarchy would not be forthcoming in the event of an Arab Spring movement in the kingdom, as was the case with Egypt, Tunisia and Libya.
Earlier, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had led a similar high-powered delegation to Pakistan; to ease tensions between the two countries over affairs related to US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan’s performance in the fight against terror and the threat of more Operation Geronimo style unilateral actions.
Hillary Clinton’s and Joe Biden’s visits to the region can be seen as setting the foundation for a broader security architecture, that would follow US planned withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan.
This framework appears to have two-fold overt focus: continue to counter the terrorist threat and contain Iran. For achieving these goals, the US is moving towards more agile Special Forces kinds of operations, tactics and technologies. In this new approach, the US would depend on its regional allies to take the lead against terrorists. However, if the allies fail due to capability or intent, it would retain the initiative to act unilaterally, as the US is presently doing in the case of drone attacks in Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia.
According to media sources, the Saudi dominated Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is to play an integral role in this new security architecture, with smaller contingent of US forces placed in various Gulf countries. In all likelihood, US would also like to maintain a base in Afghanistan after withdrawal, an approach unlikely to be welcomed by some regional actors and Taliban. This US demand, if made, could potentially become a sticking point in the upcoming conferences, on the way forward in Afghanistan. Complete withdrawal of the coalition forces from the country has been one of the consistent demands of the Taliban, before progress could be made towards a political solution.
During a panel discussion on the ‘Afghan Endgame’ held this week at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, influential former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said, “I have no [objection] in principle of negotiating with the Taliban, but for the purpose of ending the war, it’s the wrong sequence of events. The first negotiation in my view ought to be with surrounding countries.” He also urged the US to reach an agreement before it pulls out troops, and to push bigger withdrawals towards the end of the process. The US is clearly evaluating various formulations for the troop withdrawal process and is concerned about not having a military leverage.
The other leg of this new security plan promotes regional integration and trade. According to the US State Department, the new American strategy for Central and South Asia sees Pakistan as an important ally in a new Silk Road, which connects these two regions. Talking to reporters at the fourth core group summit held in Islamabad before Hilary’s visit, Mark Toner stated that the US considers the country strategically important but urged Pakistan to gel itself with the region’s economy. Toner also said that US special envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan Mark Grossman discussed “regional economic development along the vision of the new Silk Road that Secretary Clinton laid out in Chennai” when he met with the core group. During July trip to Chennai, Hillary Clinton had urged India to team up with other regional countries in reviving the Silk Route. These meetings have probably convinced Pakistan in granting India the MFN status on November 2nd.
In this context, it would be interesting to see how US deals with Iranian stakes in Afghanistan. It should be noted that cooperation between Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan had been growing before the assassination of Professor Burhanuddin Rabbani in Kabul on September 20th. Pakistan has lately devoted considerable efforts towards improving its relations with Iran as it has with Saudi Arabia. According to former top adviser to late AfPak envoy Richard Holbrooke, Vali Nasr, who also spoke at the Woodrow Wilson Center, Iran and Pakistan have both lost faith in the US strategy and are pursuing their own post-US withdrawal plans at this point. Furthermore, he stated that many people presently think the US regional engagement is about Afghanistan, however, moving forward; it’s going to be the least significant factor. The predominant concerns for US in the future are countering Al-Qaeda in Pakistan and containing Iran’s nuclear program.
From this discussion, it’s clear that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, are the principals of this emerging US regional security framework. However, significant challenges remain; the inclusion of Pakistan would depend on how well it performs against the Al-Qaeda linked groups and in facilitating the Afghan reconciliation process. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia appears to be on-board towards countering Iran but a lot will depend on the future trajectory of the Arab Spring. How forthcoming the Russians and Chinese are going to be towards these plans is yet to be seen, especially when US and Europe are for the first time operating out of economic weakness. As Dr Kissinger commented during his presentation at the Woodrow Wilson Center, managing coexistence and cooperation with the emerging powers has become a fundamental long-term strategic issue for the US, which it never had to deal with before because of its material superiority, and this adjustment may not end with a grand reconciliation.
The writer is the chief analyst for PoliTact (www.PoliTact.com and http:twitter.com/politact) and can be reached at aansar@politact.com.