During her recent visit to the region, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has propagated the concept of a “Modern Silk Road” as an instrument to recover Afghanistan from extremism. In Tajikistan, she said the integration of war-ravaged Afghanistan into regional economy would be critical to its recovery. This concept is rooted in the fact that widespread deprivation plays an important role in the Taliban insurgency. In Afghanistan, 40 percent of the population is unemployed and about 53 percent live below the poverty line. Daniel Markey had reported that in Pakistan, Taliban mostly are drawn from Afghan refugee camps and extremist madrassas in the Tribal Areas. They are uneducated and poor with fewer other employment prospects. They join Taliban groups to earn a living and to enhance their social status.
The relationship between poverty and extremism reinforces the idea that economic activity in shape of Modern Silk Road along with military operations in Afghanistan will make up an effective counterinsurgency campaign. It will also serve as a key ingredient for long term stability in the region. With 2014 as a deadline for the pullout of the major chunk of Americans forces from Afghanistan, they are hectically working to realise their covert objectives in the region, which is to strengthen their grip on the Central Asian resources. The concept of Modern Silk Road and peace in Afghanistan has been interwoven to achieve this objective. The only thing that needs to be seen is that the arrangement accrues equitable responsibilities and benefits for the regional states or otherwise. Istanbul conference held on November 2, 2011 had regional economic cooperation on its agenda.
Interestingly, besides the US and UK, India also participated in the event. That clearly indicates that the US wants India to have greater role in the post-2014 Afghanistan. The new Transit Trade agreement with Afghanistan allows her trucks to carry Afghan good to Wagah border for further export to India and the proposition to grant her the Most Favoured Nation status are the steps that reflect change in Pakistan’s stance towards her arch rival. It is also speculated that American sponsored arrangements may create hurdles in assured and uninterrupted flow of energy resources from Central Asia to China.
China has already established land links with Europe. The first route is based on existing Trans-Siberian Railway running from Vladivostok in Eastern Russia to Moscow that connects into Eastern Europe and to Rotterdam. In January 2008, China, Mongolia, Russia, Belarus, Poland and Germany implemented this route and agreed to create conditions for regular train service between Europe and Asia.
The train covered the distance of 10,000 km in 10 days as against 40 days via sea. Similarly, a train was launched from Chongquig to Port Antwerp in Belgium in May 2011. It traversed the distance of 11,179kms in 16 days as against 36 days via sea. Nevertheless, the Chinese would like to have access to Central Asian states through Afghanistan also. Any hurdle in materialising of the same will adversely effect US-China relations.
Another imbalance may crop up if India is given an out of proportion role in Afghanistan. In that case Pakistan will be confronted with an uncomfortable situation of being sandwiched between hostile Afghanistan and India. It will also be extremely difficult for Pakistan to extend transit trade rights to India while core disputes between the two countries continue to persist. More so, if US-China relations grow bitter, Pakistan would be in an awkward situation. The arrangement where India is given greater role and access to Central Asian resources will facilitate her rapid growth. That will help nurture India as a counter weight to China in a shorter timeframe. That certainly won’t be to the liking of Chinese. If Americans want to succeed in their quest to bring stability to Afghanistan and the region as a whole while exercising certain degree of control on Central Asian resources, they need to address the concerns of states contingent to Afghanistan.
Afghan Endgame and the Modern Silk Road
