Political tsunami?

Imran Khan’s time has finally come, on Oct 30 his Minar-i-Pakistan rally demonstrated that all his rhetoric had substance. It was not the enormous size of the crowd that mattered; what was more important was the willing enthusiasm and the cross-blending of youthful exuberance with visible aspirations of people of all ages and all sections of society. The place where this country’s existence was first mooted publicly in 1940 is sacred ground. For Pakistanis the national emotion encapsulated in the huge gathering was clearly captured by Imran. The real challenge will be how he can exploit and sustain the momentum. The world of politics is a game of public perceptions mixed with substance, perceptions always meaning more than substance.

The public enthusiasm matched the organisation of an event of that size in today’s terror-ridden environment; that it passed off without incident was a class act by itself. Women came in large numbers, a great many from the upwardly mobile. Normally in short supply at political gatherings, that they came in droves and were accorded the respect and deference which is their due was something amazing. Not many people realise that the PPP’s success since 1970 was founded on the solid women vote, the populist enthusiasm that Zulfikar Ali Bhutto created and Benazir really exploited to the hilt, seems to have been successfully captured by Imran Khan.

The immediate perception one gets because of Oct 30 is that Imran Khan will dominate, if not sweep the polls, at least in the Punjab and some areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK). One wishes things would be so cut and dried but is still too early to predict. Politics is a tough game and given such disparate constituencies one of the problems was that there were very few political luminaries on the stage.

Good people perhaps, but not of the kind who will deliver seats in any elections. Some will certainly make it on their own and some on Imran’s coattails but people of political stature are still in short supply.

The “Oct 30 Tsunami” effect will attract a lot of political contenders. There will be a rush to join him, many of them Imran Khan can do without if he is to retain his political credibility. Some have been sitting on the fence and just needed some nudging but many opportunists will also try and climb the political bandwagon. While he must sift carefully, the Catch-22 is that Imran also has to compromise his standards somewhat to ensure some electable candidates do come into his fold immediately to create the perception of a flood. He has given the requirement of “declaration of assets” that can be the eligibility criteria for all aspirations for public office. Scrutiny of that by qualified accountants should ensure that false declarations will separate those he can do without. That way, he will have a full-slate of eligible aspirants to chose from.

Where will Imran get his electoral support from? The first ones who will gravitate to him will be from the adrift PML(Q), hopelessly in limbo in four distinct portions. One group wanted to join the PML(Q) but was legally frustrated, at that time some went independent into a separate group. Those who remained loyal to Ch Shujaat then had another split when he joined PPP, mainly to keep Mooris Elahi out of jail. He will also be joined by disaffected PML(N) and PPP legislates who find themselves in the party without a voice.

If the PPP think they will not be effected, they should also think again. Imran’s appeal will cut across party lines. Some politicians will take decisions in lots but many will take individual decisions. Imran khan’s keeps referring to what Zulfikar Ali Bhutto did in the 1970 elections, can he take verse and chapter from Bhutto’s political craftsmanship by building a coalition of different ideologues under one roof?

The Sharifs lost big time, official machinery had been used to stage-manage their show two days earlier in Lahore. Crowd enthusiasm was clearly contrived rather than being spontaneous. The contrast between the two events was too vast for either political pundits or ordinary observers to ignore, the prevailing perception is that unless the Sharif’s come up with a miracle, their political roles have been reversed in the Punjab with that of Imran Khan.

Before Oct 30, Imran was the “spoiler”; now the votes that Sharifs or the PPP take away from him will matter in the final tally of his seats. To quote John Kennedy in his inaugural speech, “the baton has been passed to a new generation”.