The gas pipeline politics in this region involving Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and the US have entered a crucial stage, with Washington coming out in the open against the Iran-Pakistan pipeline and instead nudging Islamabad towards the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline much strongly than ever, which is likely to render these important pipelines as merely “pipe dreams”.
The US has always been opposed to the proposed Iran-Pakistan pipeline project, which was earlier known as Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline before the civil-nuclear deal between India and the US a couple of years ago, dealt a serious blow to the project, truncating it to IP. However, with the US now looking for an endgame in Afghanistan to its like liking and trying to isolate Iran on the world and regional stages, it is also trying hard to persuade Islamabad to explore the alternative sources of gas such as TAPI.
But the problem is that there is no guarantee of peace returning early to Afghanistan and thus making the TAPI, which will run through the war-torn state, also a non-feasible project. “Its no more a secret that the US is pushing the IPI’s rival TAPI gas pipeline in this region and the US officials now talk openly about its opposition to the vital project as was illustrated by recent statement by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Islamabad in which she described Iran as a dangerous neighbour and advised Pakistan to look for alternative energy projects,” said a senior Pakistani official on Saturday, seeking anonymity.
He said that was precisely the reason that Islamabad had now taken a step backwards as for the IP project and only two days ago, Pakistan’s Dr Asim Hussain stated that a price formula has been agreed upon with Turkmenistan as for the TAPI project. Notwithstanding the US desire that Pakistan drops the IP pipeline altogether and opts for TAPI, the latter too does not seem feasible, at least in the near future given the volatile security in Afghanistan.
The official said that the US also understood well that TAPI pipeline would take years to materialise keeping in view the past history of the mega project that had never been able to take off despite being on papers for decades owing to constant fighting and war in Afghanistan. However, he said that the main purpose of Obama administration was to put Iran at the receiving end and provide Pakistan with an option of another pipeline, which it believed could be materialised if peace returned to Afghanistan that hinged on the success of ongoing process of reconciliation with the Taliban.
For Pakistani authorities there is a link in US interest in TAPI and the peace process with the Taliban, in which the US sees a very crucial role for Islamabad. The US administration is telling Pakistan that fruitful peace talks with the Taliban would lead to peace in Afghanistan, which will pave the way for TAPI pipeline and thus help meet the needs of energy starved Pakistan.
Another Pakistani official said that despite the urgency of the US to hold meaningful talks with the Taliban for lasting peace in Afghanistan, the insurgents led by Mullah Omar didn’t seem to be enthusiastic to hold any result-oriented negotiations, as they felt that on battlefield they were clinching wins and the American troops were facing defeats.
