If one were to discern the edict of Arif Hameed – the Managing Director, SNGPL – Punjab could be in for a rough ride as far as gas shortage is concerned this winter. While he yearned to mask this tragic scenario in a shroud of ‘steady decrease in availability’, we all know that the plunge in gas volumes would be in synchrony with the temperature fall. The claim is vindicated by the statistical forecast, with the expected shortfall to rise from 390 mmcf in October to 500 mmcf in November, 550 mmcf in December and we could have earth-shattering numbers of up to 840 mmcf in January 2012, when the winter reaches its business end.
While addressing an ensemble of magnates at the Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Arif Hameed broke the news that is going to have immense ramifications for the industries in the province. One of the industries touted to be severely hard done by the predicted dearth of gas is the textile industry.
Over the recent past the textile sector has been one of the most grieved sectors, with 2008-09 witnessing the absence of gas for 77 days, followed by 100 days in 2009-2010 and 160 in 2010-11. Textile industry has the lion’s share in our national exports, with a direct contribution of 55 per cent, and the industry provides jobs to a mammoth number of workers – around 15 million – and it also has an association with the agriculture sector, hence any further shortage in gas supply is like a dagger in the heart of our failing economy. With electricity shortage knowing no bounds, alternative fuel options – diesel and furnace oil – not feasible options, the gas shortage is giving APTMA (All Pakistan Textile Mills Association) Chairman Punjab, Ahsan Bashir a justifiable cause for apprehension.
Unfortunately, as the exploration expeditions are criminally neglected, the power crisis – in a multitude of facets – is gradually being etched as the ethos of not only our economy but of the nation as a whole. Mashallah Shakari, Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan, recently flaunted the Pakistan-Iran Gas Pipeline as the second coming of the “Industrial Revolution” and how it pledges to expunge our power crisis single-handedly. While sanguinity begets positivity, what is unmistakable is that merely the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline is not the answer to our power predicament.
What we need is a shift towards the alternate sources of energy, and to encompass them within our power generating jurisdiction. We need to thoroughly evaluate the success stories – or otherwise – of the solar and wind energy projects and crucially, the political dogfights over hydel projects should be abandoned. It’s about time all the ‘parts’ of the country worked in unison for the prosperity of the ‘whole’, rather than continuing their relentless quest to rubberstamp each individual part as a whole.
Another imperative step pertaining to the amelioration of the gas situation is obviously the need for exploration activities, which has been the unanimous clamour of the aggrieved hordes. Once again an unprecedented understanding is required to merge the interests of various segments – and we do unfortunately have a plethora of them – into the bigger interest of the nation, or else our treasured reserves might deplete beyond utility.
Arif Hameed, while elucidating the winter crisis did, nonetheless, break some good news for the industrialists that after 22nd October the three-day weekly load-shedding would be reduced to two days. And, as they say every cloud has a silver lining only sometimes you need a really robust telescope to perceive it.
The writer is Sub-Editor, Profit