It’s a brave new world, yet we cling to the same old craven ideas. Our foreign policy is a product of a world gone by but we are trying to rehash it to fit the imperatives of a rapidly changing regional environment. The unfolding saga to our West (and the consequent drama that ensued with our ally numero uno) was already a headache for our foreign policy mandarins. Now that the player to our East has jumped into the fray, given our historically aversive equation with it and a morbid fear of it flexing its regional muscle, the situation has become a full-blown migraine.
Pakistan is rightly concerned with how the chips are going to fall in the region once the US scoots. The situation in Afghanistan is still a fermenting melange of trouble and Pakistan is in no way equipped to deal with the ensuing fallout – especially without US inflows of aid (both civilian and military) and arms which will also fizzle out once the US has left. Add to the mix, that India has designs for regional hegemony and it is the stuff nightmares of the-power-that-be are made out of.
Thus, it is logical, given this scenario that we are scrambling to stake our claim in the endgame. The fact that their has been a major shift in the US policy on the Haqqanis and we were waiting to be the in-betweening conduit, it seemed like the perfect time to ask the global superpower to rein in the aspiring regional one.
Registering our concerns about India and using the US as a counterweight to its influence is an understandable strategy. An imbalance of power is never good for the regional lay of the land. But we need to do some hard thinking to assess why we are in the position we are in. India is now an economic powerhouse which gives it political clout. It can help Afghanistan in the restructuring process. Why would Afghanistan reject this partnership when we treat it like our fief?
It’s time we stopped looking for strategic depth. Unless ‘strategic depth’ means a mutually beneficial cooperative strategy with one’s neighbour. The US will scarcely be concerned with the region once it draws down. We can’t ride their coattails then. We should safeguard our interests on our own, not just by telling others not to overstep, but by realistically coming up with a workable strategy with both our neighbours. All the regional players must understand that if the region stays in this taut state of tension, it will reach breaking point and everybody will lose.