Millstone or milestone?

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The US is now working the graveyard shift in the graveyard of empires. Ten years have passed. It’s been a long ten years decorated with destruction. In this ‘great game’ of limbo, the bar for success has dropped lower with each successive year. Where the US once started out as coming to save Afghanistan, there is now the more modest target of drawing down without leaving Afghanistan in shambles and the region in a state of tremulous uncertainty.

Anniversaries are a time for reflection – bromidic as it may be. This occasion, too, was marked by statements from all important quarters. President Obama released a quaint press release talking of implementing his Afghanistan plan, of the world being safer and the US still being resilient. But it was trying to convince itself as much as the audience. Gone is the grandiloquent rhetoric of past years replaced with muted resignation to the failure of the war. The Taliban, on the other hand, marked the decade with their insistence on their goal of ousting the US and avowing victory.

Karzai chipped in with the usual about Pakistan patronising the Taliban, and Afghanistan still being willing to talk to the Taliban. On the other hand, Pakistan’s military brass stuck to its guns about not acting in North Waziristan but offered to facilitate dialogue with the Haqqanis.

It’s been ten years and none of the involved parties have a handle on the conundrum. But one thing is amply clear: Compromise and cooperation are the only way forward. The US, Afghanistan and Pakistan need to mend their relations meaningfully rather than paper over cracks. There have been signals from the Corps Commanders’ meeting that there might be a thaw in the frosty relations between the intelligence agencies of the US and Pakistan. This is very welcome. But if the region is to achieve stability, this one-step-forward, two-steps-back routine will have to stop. The Taliban, too, need to be convinced to relent and give up arms – on both sides of the border. But all this is easier said than done.

The endgame is nigh. Afghanistan, Pakistan and the US are being bled dry. It’s time to put things into perspective. Otherwise, given the state of affairs, another decade of destruction isn’t too improbable.

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