Nothing illustrates the contradictory United States policy towards Afghanistan and Pakistan better than reports in the Wall Street Journal, on ABCNews.com and also in The New York Times about American officials meeting with the Haqqani Network on the one hand and the secret meeting between US National Security Advisor Thomas E Donilon and Pakistan Army Chief General Ashfaq Kayani last week in which reportedly Donilon delivered a tough message to Kayani about taking out the Network.
Is this a game or confusion? American officials say the policy is compartmentalised and therefore seems contradictory. There are people assigned to talk to whoever they can find and there are others who want to bludgeon the Network and think it is beyond the “pale of reconciliation”.
Recent meetings with former US NSA Stephen Hadley, former ambassador and president of the Brookings Institution Richard Armacost and President of Henry L Stimson Centre Ellen Laipson who has considerable experience of intelligence work from her National Intelligence Council days corroborate this impression. Too many people coming to Pakistan and speaking on and to Pakistan with different voices; an election year coming up; a weak president; a policy that flips here and flops there and we have what some would call royal confusion, others a grand conspiracy.
Either way, there are consequences. And the state at the receiving end is Pakistan. The problem for Pakistan is exacerbated because of opacity and because Islamabad (a reference to the civilian as well as the military leadership) has failed to present its side of the story.
Partly, this is an institutional problem; partly, it is owed to the deep scepticism with which even the Pakistanis receive Pakistan’s narrative. Take the example of what DG-ISI Lt-Gen Ahmed Shuja Pasha said about contacts with the Haqqanis. All intelligence agencies have those contacts, including the Americans and they [Washington] know it. Not many believed him. Now what he said has been corroborated by the US media. And Defence Secretary Leon Panetta now says he doesn’t know for a fact that what Admiral Mullen said is right!
In the end, as should be obvious, the issue is not American confusion or perfidy. The issue is, do we have a response to a given situation because that situation is unlikely to change miraculously? The answer is no. Those in Pakistan who believe that Islamabad should just simply let Afghanistan be and ignore India’s footprint or even let America do what it wants to, seem to think that Pakistan is the only proactive player and all others are merely reacting. If only Pakistan will fall in line, all else will fall in place. This is either naïveté or a deliberate misrepresentation of a very complex reality.
Far from being proactive, Pakistan is reacting. Not just that, it is reacting from event to event instead of having a comprehensive policy and engaging other states on the basis of that. That would require, beyond spelling out the mantra of a stable Afghanistan, to getting down to the task of looking at the situational web strand by strand and informing other actors of what can and cannot be done. And then, just like it happens in the US, there should be selective ‘leaks’ to the media about what is going on and who said what to whom.
Now that the meeting between Donilon and Kayani has been reported, let me say that there was another, similar, nearly 8-hour-long meeting between Kayani and Senator John Kerry in the Gulf. This was post-Abbottabad raid and Senator Kerry was told in no uncertain terms of the negative impact of that action. But on the other hand, as another senior former US official told a group of analysts, both the Bush and Obama administrations had made clear to Pakistan that if and when Osama bin Laden appeared on the US radar, Washington would act unilaterally. If he is right, and this has also been said by other currently serving US officials, why was this agreed to, if at all? And if it was not, why was this not leaked to the media at that time?
Pakistan is right when it says that it can’t act because it doesn’t know what America wants in the run-up to the endgame of this cycle in Afghanistan. As one official put it to me, “If we try and help them they will use that as evidence that we have contacts with the Taliban; if we don’t, they accuse us of not facilitating a transition.” And he said this before the story came out that Pakistan helped arrange talks between the Americans and the Haqqanis.
Aside from this dilemma is the problem of the nature of contacts. How much control does Pakistan exercise and on whom? Are the Taliban a cohesive body in pursuit of a strategic objective; or are there groups within the larger Taliban movement that may not be in direct, effective control of the Taliban leadership?
These questions are important because answers to them would determine who might have killed Burhanuddin Rabbani and to what end.
It has already put paid to President Hamid Karzai’s effort to talk to the Taliban internally as well as through a bilateral track with Pakistan. Sources confirm that he decided after the Rabbani killing to visit New Delhi and sign a strategic partnership with India.
The signal won’t be lost on Pakistan. While Afghanistan, as a sovereign country, has the right to deal with any other country, outside of this theoretical statement lie hard realities and one of them has to deal with Karzai’s ‘twin brother’ Pakistan’s concern about Afghanistan’s ‘dear friend’. Karzai’s own statement that Afghanistan has turned towards India because of the latter’s regional clout and fast-growing economy, coupled with clause 2 (a) and (b) of the treaty which deal with developing joint initiatives on key regional and international affairs and Afghanistan’s support for India’s bid for a permanent seat at the UN Security Council will be seen by Islamabad as a clear attempt by the current government in Kabul to put itself in the Indian camp. Add to that the fact that there is a strategic partnership between India and the US and it requires no power of crystal gazing to predict Pakistan’s response.
The US-Pakistan interests are already divergent on the issue of India’s footprint in Afghanistan, not the Indian presence per se but the activities. With Afghanistan putting all its eggs in the Indian basket and going much beyond just cooperation to acceptance of India’s position as the regional hegemon and protector of Afghanistan, Pakistan is being placed in the position where it is expected to help Afghanistan stabilise and accept Afghanistan’s take on its main rival.
The expectation is that fearing isolation Pakistan will either have to accept this position or, if it doesn’t do so, it could be blamed for the violence in Afghanistan and be further isolated and punished. What is being ignored by the US, Afghanistan and India is the fact that the consequences of this treaty would not redound to anyone’s advantage. The US won’t get an orderly withdrawal without addressing Pakistan’s concerns; India-Pakistan normalisation will suffer and Pakistan’s isolation and instability will have consequences for the current government in Afghanistan.
And this comes just when the only way out was trilateral cooperation among Pakistan, Afghanistan and India. If the US interest is to see a stable Afghanistan rather than getting Pakistan isolated and the region destabilised for that reason, a worse hand could not be delivered to Pakistan.
The writer is Contributing Editor, The Friday Times.
It is people like the author who have been peddling this view for ever that are responsible the mess Pakistan is in today. Why care about India or Afganistan – care about Pakistan first, fools. What if India is a big brother in the region- it should be Pakistans ROLE Model- it will help Pakistan more! Pakistan needs to learn to live and let live. Currently they want to die and let die. If India and Pakistan cooperate it will help Pakisatan. The author is suffering form the same malady that has bought Pakistan to where it is today. Where we blame all except overselves. Where it’s ok to it is ok to bomb Bombay by proxy…it’s ok to destabilize Afganistan …but god forbid pay for our sins! It’s ok to have strategic alliance with China which is Indias backyard but god forbid India has the same with Afganistan. Grow up, haider before you are forced to sport a beard and wear ankle high pants.
Zulfi Sahib;s comments are interesting. Man, at least I am always very carefull in commenting on this mature writer's columns.
Very well said Zulfi. I think there is need to change in thinking. Pakistan should stabilize itself and not Afganistan!
Supporting same things (insurgency in different) over and over and expecting different results is lunacy. Unfortunately, that harder pakistani ISI keeps pushing with current agenda, the bigger hole it is digging for itself. There is no external threat to Pakistan. Pakistan's prosperity lies in cutting its large budget to its army which runs the country via proxy and creates regional tensions in order to show a farse threats.
Is this the black hole that entire world but people in pakistan can't see?
Actually it is the export of hatred and murder by Pakistan that is causing it's isolation. No need for complex conspiracy delusions, ah , I mean theories, by the Pak "elite" .
As ye reap so shall ye sow. Pakistan is about to reap the whirlwind, you can be sure the Paks will be blaming everyone but themselves.
Author is being disingenous. It isn't 'contacts' between Pak intelligence/Army and Taliban that has Umrika worried. After all Umrika itself used those contacts to intiate talks with the Haqqani group. What worries Umrika is
-violence perpetrated in Afghanistan by Haqqani group, facilitated by impunity granted by Pakistan allowing Haqqanis sanctuaries in Pakistan
-direct planning/facilitating by Pak intelligence/Army of Haqqani/Taliban attacks killing Umrikan soldiers, and seeking to kill Umrikans in Kabul. This despite all US efforts to aid Pakistan and to reach out to Haqqanis.
-Haqqani/Taliban ideological commitment to Al Qaeda's global jihad aka ceaseless violence against Umrika.
Where in Mr Haider's article is this addressed? Pretending the above issues do not exist will no longer serve to bring Umrika 'back in line'.
When the supposedly sane people come in defense of the evil in a country ..!e assured its the love to defend the nation which forces them … Its jus the signal that the end game is near …
Give gwadar to china .. Have chinese army in POK .. Cede HOLIER than thou kashmir land to china .. Harbour dawood nd then ask who he is … Bombay .. Parliament.. Kandhar are all ok ..
But clearly if afghanistan supports india then we will kill afghans nd support terror there and keep devastating the country .. Is what haider says …clearly he is acceptin guilt
POK..U are biased and already indoctrinated so this article will not break any of ur bones I hope ..Ejaz is talking about what can be the consequences if Bullies will keep walking the road they are since last 10 years ..So keep the pressure up on Pakistan and enjoy the 'peacefull' neighbourhood if thats what you want ( and this doeant mean we are not to blame ourselves for this sh1te …as one of our Poet wrote …Kujh Unj Vi Rahwa Aoukhiya San ….Kujh Sanoo Maran Da Shauq Vi see …Get it completed and translated if interested )
Mr. Haider:
I am writing from the US and I have quite a few Pakistani friends.
It's pathetic. It's pathetic because you are the Islamabad's side of the story. Your glory or doom is in the same boat with Pasha and Kayani!
Sixty years gone by since independence. You see things where it came to and where it stands today! And you keep chugging on. Not understanding where things would end up (for Pakistan) is pathetic. Or you are just another helping hand for the Brass only without any element of patriotism in you.
Your language skill is good though! Where did you go to school? Just curious…
It is an excellent article by the author.Pakistan has a siginificant role to stablize Afghanistan whereas India has nothing to do with Afghanistan except using its terrority to export terrorism in Pakistan to destabilize its arch rival.By doing so New Delhi will burn its fingers as India is already facing many insurgencies in Kashmir, Assam,Nagaland, Gorkhaland and Minipur.Morover India is on the wrong side in Afghanistan by supporting Nathern Alliance thugs against Pushtoon majority who are pro Pakistan and scared of U.S withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Very intelligent article. USA should end it's occupation of Afghanistan and leave Afghanistan for the Afghans. India should stop supporting Northern Alliance thugs and warlords who are responsible for the emergence of Taliban due to their misrule and looting of Afghan resources after the Soviet withdrawl. Pakistan and the rest of the world should support a future government in Afghanistan in which majority Pakhtoon population is given the dominant role unlike in the present setup where Pakhtoons are excluded. Bravo Ejaz for being bold and courageous for writing the truth.
Very bad article provoking Pakistani's to think like PAK Army and ISI thinks. Guys please wake up and do something to save your country. Every country has it's army, but PAK Army has Pakistan (a country). Foreign policy, education policy and many other things are decided by Army and ISI in Pakistan. That is affecting the lives of millions of Pakistani people.
old habits die hard…author is an ex serviceman…!
There are too many aspects to Afghanistan, Pakistan and USA's role. I can only comment on Gen. Pasha's briefing,is rich, trying to compare their interaction with the militant groups and equate with other countries. Yes! every country's agencies have contacts with militants, however, they do not host them on their soil, and support them to violate the writ of the state…LeJ, SSP, and other Sectarian outfits. It would also be nice for the military establishment to declare as to what agreement we signed with the USA (perhaps wishful thinking from the establishment).
Ijaz article is very well articulated and cover practical issues in the Afghanistan game: Karzai dealings in Delhi were definately approved by US to add continuing pressure on Pakistan to bow down on US demands otherwise cards have been shown for the future game plan….
Yes! At this point, I would say, US likes it. In the past US was trying to discourage India.
Yes, Americans have contacts with Haqqanis, but they are not hosting them somewhere in Florida in order to eventually get attacked by them. This kind of "national interest" is particular to quarters advocated by Haider.
Pakistan is not hosting Haqqani on their soil. Sixty percent Afghanistan is being controlled by the rebels. Do you think all this is happening by a handful (even if it is true) of militants in a tiny enclave called North Waziristan. The fact is that Afghanistan is hosting terrorists like Tehreke Taliban who have been attacking Pakistan and killing innocent civilians in Pakistan. And until recently Afghanistan have been hosting terrorist Brhamdagh Bugti in Kabul and last month flown to Switzerland for "asylum". Problems in Afghanistan will persist as long as foreign occupation forces are there and India's support of Northern Alliance terrorists. All foreign interference in Afghanistan should stop.
The author unfortunately has a defined agenda to propagate rather than a honest desire to project ground realities.The fact of the matter is that two main forces which are driving Pak is hatred for India and the pursuance of terrorism as state policy.The USA,Afganistan,India are not enemies of Pak but are being projected as such by its military to facilitate its domination over its people.By misleading only they can pocket for themselves a major chunk of its treasury and give some portion to Haider also.This is akin to a mafia running there.Sobriety implies that Pak should come out of this false notion of a great country and start removing the ills afflicting it rather than dreaming that it is destined to change fortunes of India,Afganistan,USA.
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