Manufacturing consensus

Politicians who would normally refuse to shake hands, leave alone sit across a table were unanimous in endorsing a new policy of “giving peace a chance” at the All Parties Conference convened by the Prime Minister. The overbearing presence of the COAS General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani and his enigmatic intelligence chief General Shuja Pasha pulled it off.

The manufacturing of consensus to strengthen the military’s hands in the wake of the diatribe of the (now retired)top military bureaucrat of the US Mike Mullen might be construed as a bit of an over reaction by some. But was the need of the hour for our ubiquitous establishment. In the end analysis Prime Minister Gilani’s policy of reconciliation and dialogue delivered.

The body language of most of the participants at the APC while greeting the Army Chief, many of them for the first time, amply demonstrated the fascination of our polity with the khakis. Notwithstanding that there is a working democracy of sorts in the country our politicians (with honourable exceptions of course) know where the buck stops.

Hence it was no surprise to see media savvies like Sheikh Rashid acting as the self-styled spokesman of the GHQ in the immediate aftermath of the Conference. The PML(N) chief Mian Nawaz Sahrif and Mehmood Khan Achakzai were perhaps the only exceptions who had the temerity to deviate from the officially certified truth.

While predictably singling out the government for its lack of credibility, Nawaz asked military officials as to why the entire world was pointing fingers at Pakistan. He questioned our security policy by saying that there must be something fishy going on for the world to make such a noise.

The APC is done and over with. In the meanwhile, the US administration has somewhat distanced itself from the bite of the allegations made by its Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff. However not withstanding the hype and the rhetoric, with the passage of time, ground realities on both sides are becoming more complex.

The APC refrained from directly criticising the US despite presence of hawks like Imran Khan and Jamaat-e-Isalmi chief Munawar Hasan. It decided that there has to be a new direction and policy with a focus on peace and reconciliation. It also declared that national interests should guide Pakistan’s policy, and trade, not aid is the way forward.

Who could disagree with such platitudinal rhetoric? But does the Pakistani state have the capacity, nay political will, to walk the talk?

The bottom line of the APC resolution is that the military is not willing to launch a putsch against the Haqqani network in North Waziristan despite the diplomatic pressure and sabre rattling by the US. There is a clear message to Washington that the strategic restraint by the Pakistani military has the support of broad political spectrum across the board.

What is conspicuously, albeit predictably, missing from the APC rhetoric is any declaration of obviating the possibility of using Pakistan’s territory for terrorist activities across the border into Afghanistan? Implicitly, it has been stated that this thorny issue, including the terrorist attacks within the country, will be resolved through dialogue.

Dialogue with whom: the TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan), the so-called Quetta Shura or the Haqqani Network? After losing 35000 of our own and tremendous loss to our economy have we finally reached to this conclusion?

On what terms such a dialogue will be possible? Certainly Pakistan cannot officially allow its territory to be used against US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. Nor can we acquiesce to the Taliban’s demand of establishing a theocratic state in Pakistan or even facilitate its creation across the border.

Mike Mullen, the Defence Secretary Leon Panetta and the CIA Chief David Petraeus are playing the bad cop, the White House and the State Department have now stepped in to offer an olive branch of sorts. The Congress remains the wild card in the pack threatening the suspension of USD 7.5 billion military and economic aid packages.

Despite distancing from Mullen’s remarks, the perception in Washington remains strong that so long as Pakistan remains adamant to move against terrorist networks like the Haqqani group to operate from its tribal belt, peace in Afghanistan will remain elusive.

Using the forum of the APC, the ISI Chief General Shuja Pasha while denying any links with the Haqqanis has advised the US to negotiate with them. The implication is clear – the ISI can facilitate such a dialogue.

The US is, however, moving in the opposite direction. Its Treasury Department has slapped sanctions against a key commander of the Haqqani network, an Afghan native. It has also blacklisted two members of the Pakistan based Lashker-e-Taiba (LeT).

The ISI is apprehensive that Washington is trying to deny Pakistan a seat on the final negotiation table with the Taliban. The recently leaked information in the media that the US is proposing setting up a Taliban liaison office in Qatar precisely to keep the Pakistanis away was certainly not welcome news for our policy planners. Islamabad rightly considers itself central to the final settlement in Afghanistan.

Utter frustration expressed by the US Defence establishment against Islamabad in the aftermath of the recent attacks in Kabul is symptomatic of its end game going all wrong. To its utter dismay, neither the Taliban are on the retreat nor the Afghan National Army (ANA) is capable of filling the security gap after withdrawal of NATO troops.

To top this, unless a miracle happens, owing to severe domestic economic downturn, President Obama is increasingly being perceived as a one-term president. The miracle is surely not Afghanistan, which as the end game comes closer, is becoming increasingly messy.

The APC might give impetus to the ascendant jingoistic rhetoric in the country. Unless we are willing to alter our flawed and obsolete strategic notions, ground realities are bound to remain the same.

The moot also demonstrated the haplessness of our civilian polity, willing to be dictated to without questioning the officially certified truth. Once again Zardari demonstrated his political skill buttressed by his sense for survival by pulling it off. He artfully used the Army to bring to less than one roof all those squabbling elements who otherwise would not sit around the same table.

In the process the parliament was bypassed but the military got what it wanted to strengthen its hand.

The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today