Like everyone else’s
Though even the most star-struck, the most Naseem Hijazi indoctrinated men of faith wouldn’t put any money on the home team in the ghastly eventuality of a military confrontation between Pakistan and the US, some have taken fancy to the idea that there is much we can capitalise on.
Some of these are based, surprisingly enough, on economics. Surprising, because the stark economic circumstances that we would have to face if the Americans want to make things tough have been discussed at great length in public discourse, including this space yesterday. The framework that puts us at an advantage rests on the flawed premise of the indispensability of our trade route. The transit access that we give Nato containers is no doubt an efficient route but it is not the only option available. President Obama discussed with Uzbek leader Islam Karimov the possibility of increasing US use of Uzbekistan as another route to supply US troops in Afghanistan. As an American lawmaker suggested, the US is probably going to shift about half of its Pakistani transit trade to the Uzbeks. Is it going to cost more? Yes. Is it going to be exorbitantly expensive? Not by any chance. Furthermore, the blowing up of Nato cargo trucks, a routine occurrence in Pakistan, is presumably going to be with lesser frequency in the Central Asian republics.
Yet another fallacy that we subscribe to on the basis of our geography is our value as a transit for gas pipelines (let the discerning reader note the resignation at being a rentier state; we will add nothing of value to any transaction, apart from merely being there) but the scale of operations in the projects needs to be looked at. The IPI, TAPI, whatever the project we get going, is going to yield us a rent much lower than can sustain our losses from elsewhere. In fact, we are going to end up consuming much of the energy ourselves.
Another geographical advantage is the possibility of providing a route to Chinese goods through the Gwadar port. But setting up a port and the land transit leading to it requires more than merely being there. There is too much money to be spent and too much of consensus to be thrashed out. The project hasn’t made headway for a reason.
A fine line between optimism and delusion.
