As the military junta counts the profits made in the war on terror thus far, and the losses to be accrued if the US decides to unilaterally attack, alarm bells should be ringing in Islamabad. After all, democracy has been convenient collateral damage every time “supreme national interest” is at stake.
The last time “supreme national interest” had become as important was when OBL was found a few minutes’ walk away from a military establishment. The Abbottabad fiasco brought much embarrassment to those who govern this country, but among the democrats, there was a sense of elation that they hadn’t been humiliated. There was also much apprehension about what the army was going to do next. Democracy was never at threat then, what with democrats trying to save face for the army by forming a commission to fix responsibility. The demands of immediacy meant that something had been done; the fact that people tend to have short-term memories ensures that we’ll never find out what actually happened.
And yet, the utter refusal of all concerned to go after the Haqqani network is troubling. While the armed forces can comment on the extent and breadth of any operation, and the difficulties it is bound to entail, what is deeply unsettling is the outright refusal to act against them. This implies that we have something to hide, or to protect, from the US and indeed from our own people.
Has the military failed again? At the very least, one can argue that the military has a plan – something one cannot say with as much confidence about our democrats. But one can certainly disagree with the merits and de-merits of their plan. One could also point to the resounding success of the democrats in steering clear of governance crisis since the last polls, but that sadly has not been the case.
In Lahore, the sight of the Punjab chief minister going on his policing rounds might appeal to the jingoist stalwart, but in essence, it is a reflection of the inefficiency and utter incompetence of the provincial political actors and bureaucracy. Dengue fever is not something sent down from the heavens (or hell). The warning signs were all there since 2003 but the state of unpreparedness has been appalling.
In Sindh, the floods returned after one year but the less said about the governance of the PPP’s provincial government the better: even President Zardari, the chief of the party, decided to set up a control room at his residence in Karachi than rely on his people in the Chief Minister’s House or the cabinet.
There could be an argument that the situation is not as bad in KP or Balochistan, but that is merely clutching at straws. It is, and part of it because of the damages inflicted by General Pervez Musharraf. Moreover, Punjab and Sindh are the two provinces governed by the PPP and PML(N) – the only forces that could pose a danger to an army-led regime change.
It is perhaps too early to expect democrats to buck up, to end undemocratic practices and to abandon their parochial to score points over each other. Such is democracy’s nature that it takes time for lessons to be learnt, re-learnt and applied. But time is what the army does not have – the current interval (till such time that the US acts) is a moment of strategising about the next decade, not worry about who will be part of their vision of how to govern the country and interact with the comity of nations.
My feeling is that this time around, the option of a “national government” will be seriously debated at all levels. In practice, what this means is that the democrats will wilfully put the constitution in abeyance to provide the army with an active role in governance. While political activity may not be banned, the emphasis on governance will be through technocrats. Such a setup will be branded a new kind of democracy “to save Pakistan”.
What the new setup is unlikely to do, however, is go after the Haqqani network. Because any regime now governing Pakistan knows fully well that strategic depth is fully well and alive, that the double-game – be it planned or just incidental – will reap its benefits soon after polls in the US.
Of course, in the event that international sanctions are slapped on Pakistan, we must look inwards. That means not simply giving democracy its due run and time, but also to work on market structures, agricultural productivity, educational standards, increasing the skill set of all human resource, and even end the otherising of marginal communities and groups, and accept them as citizens proper.
