The great end game
The powers that be here in Pakistan would not be pleased. It appears that the Taliban are set to establish their first internationally recognised office outside of Afghanistan after the 2001 fall of their regime. In Qatar, not Pakistan. Back in 2009, when Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban’s military chief, was apprehended from Karachi, it was believed the US was already in talks with him. The spooks here, it is rumoured, were none too pleased. They want a seat at the table in Afghanistan. With the Americans talking directly to the Taliban, where did that leave us? Nowhere, after the Qatar development.
This has been a failure on more levels than one. On a broader level, the policy of strategic depth, of maintaining ties and links with the Islamists in Afghanistan, has cost us dearly. With the militant networks wreaking havoc across our land and tearing asunder our very social fabric, many are wondering just how important culturing a friendly government in Afghanistan is. But the Qatar office would be proof that even that policy, flawed to begin with, has not been followed up on successfully. The Taliban, if they agree to the plan, will have proved their aversion to sticking on with the Pakistani establishment. The worst of both worlds. On good terms with neither the Americans nor the upcoming Afghan government.
By now, it is certain that the Obama administration would be doing the math on how bad it would look, in public diplomacy terms, to include Mullah Omar in a possible future government setup in Afghanistan. That is a possibility. The Taliban, previously having spurned attempts at reconciliation, are to be goaded into the negotiation. To quote Ambassador Crocker, “The Taliban needs (sic) to feel more pain before you get to a real readiness to reconcile.” This means more military offensives before the Taliban finally agree. Moving on from this, refusing to include the erstwhile Amir of Afghanistan would be pushing the envelope; the Americans are going to be glad to have finally gotten to talking to the other side and facilitating a viable exit strategy.
