The troubled Karachi situation is causing much anxiety and depression among politically informed people all over the country because of the implications the growing chaos has for the socio-economic future of the country. It can be argued that parts of Karachi have experienced mini-insurgency from time to time, especially when the MQM has been out of power. However, the present crisis in Karachi has proved to be more persistent and violent than any before.
A strong new factor has been added by the press conference of Zulfiqar Mirza on August 28, accusing the MQM of involvement in violence and terrorism in Karachi. He produced some documentary evidence of the people involved in killings and how the MQM managed to get its loyalists released from custody. He not only accused Altaf Hussain of engaging in anti-Pakistan activities but also made strong charges against his party man and the federal interior minister, Rehman Malik.
Much depends on how the MQM responds to the charges by Zulfiqar Mirza i.e. on whether it deals with them on a political basis by contesting the statements and taking up the matter with President Asif Ali Zardari or decides to respond by showing its street power. In the latter case, violence will resurge in Karachi. Similarly, the PPP will have to make an extra effort if it wants to continue with reconciliation with the MQM. It will also have to address its internal turmoil caused by Zulfiqar Mirza’s charges against Rehman Malik. There are people who are happy over what they describe as the frank and bold statement by Zulfiqar Mirza; they are expected to support him.
As Zulfiqar Mirza has produced some documents to support his hard-hitting statements, the federal government should appoint a high powered inquiry committee to look into the charges. However, given the ethnic and political polarisation in Karachi and Sindh, the major groups are reacting to the situation keeping in view their partisan interests.
The sharp political and ethnic divide in Karachi threatens the political process and makes it difficult to examine the issues in a dispassionate manner. Each ethnic group and political party thinks and acts only with reference to its ethnic identity and political affiliation; the latter is greatly influenced by the former. Each group/party views itself as the victim of injustice and violence and regards others as the source of trouble and exploiter. Consequently, each political and ethnic identity has created a partisan narrative of what is happening in Karachi. Divergent and competing narratives have led each group to talk in terms of “us” and “them,” rather than treating all the resident of Karachi as members of one political community. Such a psychological divide has far-reaching negative implication for the future politics of Karachi.
The slow unravelling of the political process, if not checked quickly, will threaten democracy in Pakistan. Any replacement of democracy with non-democratic political order does not guarantee the solution of the current problems. Rather, it will accelerate the current negative trends and make political recovery more problematic. The political parties and societal groups, especially the federal and Sindh governments, should dispassionately review the situation and address the problems by setting aside immediate political considerations. The fault lies with the political leaders and parties and eminent societal personalities who are unable or unwilling to demonstrate a joint determination to fight the trouble makers.
Karachi has reached the present troubled situation because of the sharp ethnic divide and the habit of ignoring problems in their early stages. It may no longer be possible after Zulfiqar Mirza’s statement to continue ignoring the political problems or law and order challenges. However, given the current political polarisation, it is difficult to suggest if different political parties and ethnic groups will rise above their partisan interests. Rather, the MQM would like a stern action against Zulfiqar Mirza as he has framed serious charges not only against the MQM but also against its top leader, Altaf Hussain. The MQM is over-sensitive on issues relating to its top leader. A section of the PPP that support Rehman Malik will also adopt a strident approach towards Zulfiqar Mirza.
Traditionally, the Sindh government has found it difficult to balance the divergent political pressures from the Karachi-based political parties, especially the MQM. The federal government and the PPP top leadership also apply pressure to pursue their agenda of reconciliation which provides space to Karachi-based political parties to protect their activists from the reach of law enforcing authorities. This causes indecisiveness and poor responses to difficult situations.
Each political party is exploiting the situation to its best advantage. The ANP has suspended the active participation of its ministers in the Sindh government because it thinks that the PPP government has given unnecessary concessions to the MQM on local government system.
The MQM is better placed to extract maximum benefits. It has most of National Assembly and the Sindh Assembly seats in Karachi and Hyderabad. It uses it parliamentary clout to pressure the federal and Sindh government to accept its demands relating to its partisan interests in urban Sindh, especially in Karachi. If this method does not work, the MQM shows its street power by bringing its people on the streets.
Whereas the federal and Sindh governments need to muster enough political courage to set aside immediate political considerations and tackle the law and order situation in a head-on manner, the Karachi-based political parties should rise above purely partisan considerations. Unless they cross the ethnic and political divide and adopt a joint approach to control violence, the situation cannot be controlled by the government alone.
The PML(N) has also decided to stridently pursue its partisan agenda against the federal government by exploiting the Karachi situation. The Punjab Chief Minister, Shahbaz Sharif, known for emotionally charged statements against the federal government and President Asif Ali Zardari, visited Karachi and accused the MQM, the PPP and the ANP for causing problems in Karachi. The Sindh Chief Minister and the Governor (the PPP and the MQM respectively) did not show any interest in Shahbaz Sharif’s visit. The political crisis caused by Zulfiqar Mirza enables the PML(N) to build pressure on the PPP and the MQM.
The immediate challenge of salvaging law and order by using the Police and the Rangers in a non-discriminatory and non-partisan manner is likely to be neglected because of the political fallout of Zulfiqar Mirza’s statement. The political parties are not known for dealing with explosive political satiations by negotiations in a peaceful and orderly manner. Karachi’s troubles are likely to accentuate.
The writer is an independent political and defence analyst.