‘I will prepare and some day my chance will come’ (Abe Lincoln)
Fed up of conditions in Pakistan many people are praying for a ‘revolution,’ but are we prepared for it if, as appears possible, we chance upon one?
A revolution is ‘a complete and forcible overthrow and replacement of an established government or political system by people governed.’
The word ‘entrenched’ would apply better in that definition, since ‘established’ implies something strong, stable and permanent. The first two do not apply to the government of Pakistan, and the third is plain depressing if applied to it. The word entrenched on the other hand hints at something encroaching, trespassing, or infringing on the rights of others, which is about right.
The following are required for a successful revolution: A problem, information, strong leadership, organisation, a desire for little or no violence, a specific goal, and insider help.
Pakistan has a surfeit of huge problems: Mr Zardari and his government, the provincial governments, and many others. Iran’s Ahmedinajad is not a suitable comparison, since although he is a huge problem, he is not so for the people of Iran, only for Western governments, who conduct campaigns to destabilise him.
The public must be kept well informed to instigate change. Information today is available via newspapers, other publications and the electronic media. During the recent upheaval in Egypt the public was informed by means of social networks such as Facebook. Who would have expected it of silly little Facebook with its sub-groups such as Lovestruck.com?
The Pakistani public although less hooked up to internet connections have a sufficient cell phone network. SMS could be a vehicle.
Civil disobedience is an effective way to initiate the process, while reinforcing the power and importance of non-violence. There is little that can be done to move a child who passively refuses to disobey, and the same applies to the people of a country, as proved by Gandhi and lately by Anna Hazare. Given the emotional national character of the Pakistani people however, this is not a method likely to succeed here.
The most successful revolution changes the status quo peacefully. For this, strong and effective leadership is required which is scarce in this country.
The Islamic revolution under the exemplary leadership of the Prophet Muhammad, even though it followed several battles, was a peaceful one given its magnitude and the revolutionary changes it brought in its wake. It highlights the fact that people rally wholeheartedly and more effectively around a worthy major cause rather than an obscure target.
In Europe, after years of division between East and West Germany personified by the infamous wall, televisions worldwide broadcast scenes of thousands of Germans scaling that same wall one day, and pulling it down…while guards stood by, helpless. Sadly, concerted action and its prerequisite organisation are not among Pakistan’s strengths, and any action in this country is likely to be chaotic and disastrous.
At the end of the day, there is only so much that a rabble with bricks, bats, Molotov cocktails, and even guns can do. Whoever commands the allegiance of the big guns aka the army wins the day.
The Chinese Tiananman Massacre of 1989 was mainly a civil unrest movement for political reform, and was largely peaceful until the Communist Party decided it had had enough, and sent in the army. Thousands died, martial law was imposed, and the rebellion was quelled.
This is a chink in the Pakistan government’s armour: Mr Zardari’s relationship with the army has been a bit ‘wonky faint’ throughout. He is ethnically incompatible with this predominantly Punjabi force, and unsure of his ability to control it. His unwillingness to call upon the army’s help in Karachi is a result of this weakness.
There are groups and persons more buddy buddy with the army; however these are neither the best replacements for the current order nor the most popular. In Iran’s example once again, Khomeini was able to depose the unpopular Reza Shah with peaceful ease only due to his (Khomeini’s) massive public support.
Probably, the ideal revolution in recent history was the one in Estonia and Lithuania in the 1980s. Called the ‘Singing Revolution,’ this was because fully a quarter of the population joined hands (literally) and sang their way to Independence from the USSR within a space of four years. Not a single drop of blood was shed.
Alas, Pakistan. Still we do possess the likes of Arif Lohar and Tina Sani, so we can support Coke Studio, hone our vocal chords for the assault, and learn to wield our chimtas. It’s just that, well… the idea of four years of ‘Sohni Dharti’ and ‘Jeevay Pakistan’ is enough to provoke bloodshed in itself.
