Dire straits

The doomsday pundits and naysayers predicting the imminent demise of the government at the hands of an obdurate apex court were sadly disappointed. According to puritan jurists like Justice (retd) Wajihuddin, it was the Supreme Court that blinked first by giving a way out to the government. The fact of the matter is that with no Bonapartist generals on call, the judiciary was not in a mood to rock the system at its own peril.

A section of the media and the political opposition were confident that in the National Assembly session summoned by the government last Monday, the prime minister would move a resolution to curb the powers of the apex court. Gilani disappointed these punters by plainly declaring that the government respected the judiciary and did not want a clash of institutions.

Both the Sharif brothers were keen to get on the judiciary bandwagon. Mian Shahbaz Sharif, on his umpteenth trip to London, released a statement immediately after landing at Heathrow that any attempt to move a resolution curtailing the powers of the judiciary will be strongly resisted.

Nawaz Sharif on his rare visit to the parliament crowed that his party would bring in a resolution of its own for the independence of the judiciary to counter the government’s resolution. But the resolution never came. Once again, the wily Zardari outsmarted the Sharifs.

This, however, does not necessarily mean that the government has had a sudden change of heart and would start implementing the edicts of the apex court in letter and spirit. Nor it can be construed that the judiciary has become relatively plaint and would no longer put the executive on the dock.

Once the judicial impasse was over, attention again shifted to the bloodbath in Karachi. Sadly, hopes that a meaningful debate would be conducted on the issue to evolve a consensus during the ongoing session of the National Assembly were immediately dashed.

Legislators belonging to both the PPP and the PML(N) on Thursday marred the chance of a constructive debate on the Karachi situation by indulging in a no-holds-barred mud-slinging match against their respective leaderships. Interestingly both rivals in the Karachi cauldron, MQM and the ANP, are demanding a military operation. The PPP and its coalition partners in Sindh have slavishly mandated the president to negotiate with all political forces to bring a negotiated peace in the provincial capital.

Some would say that Nero is fiddling while Rome is burning. Jostling by all the political forces involved in Sindh to gain turf before the general elections has brought things to a pass. The MQM supremo Altaf Hussain considers Karachi a closed shop for the Mohajirs and is not willing to give in to new realities which obviously encroach upon the turf gained during the Musharraf years.

Altaf Hussain has apologised for the remarks he made the other day against nationalist Sindhis branding them as chauvinists. He has asked MQM workers to cooperate with every party for the sake of peace in Karachi. The enigmatic MQM chief, apart from other stakeholders, will have to walk the talk if peace is to be restored.

As for the PPP, it is bent upon breaking the stranglehold of the MQM on the local government by ushering in the commissionerate system. Doing some gerrymandering of its own, it wants to undo the gerrymandering of the MQM by tweaking the delimitations in the metropolis.

So far, the ANP is concerned that it has no option but to hitch its wagon with the PPP. It represents the hapless Pashtuns of the city who find little or no representation despite then now being almost equal to Mohajirs in numbers, by some estimates. After being the underdog for long, the mafias amongst the Pashtuns have also taken to arms to protect their interests. The ANP leadership exerts little or no control over them.

Virtually all the political players in Karachi glibly claim that their parties are not involved in the current mayhem. According to them, it is the handiwork of ‘criminal elements’ outside their pale. The facts speak otherwise. Unless they decide to bring peace to Karachi, administrative actions can only bring temporary respite to the financial hub of the country.

While Karachi is burning, economic and governance issues are not getting as much attention they should. The economic downslide has started to affect basic infrastructure. The Pakistan Railways is bankrupt to the extent that it is no longer able to run trains; if something is not done soon to bailout the railways, there is a real danger that the trains might simply stop running. In fact, according to latest reports, operations of 25 trains have already been cancelled.

Similarly, KESC, privatised by the Musharraf regime, is unable to pay for its fuel resulting in shutdowns adversely affecting not only business and industry but also greatly exacerbating the already flared tempers of the Karachiites. Circular debt affecting WAPDA and power distribution companies has created a power crisis of unprecedented proportions in the rest of the country.

If one adds to the list of woes, double-digit inflation and endemic increases in gas shortage and electricity prices, it is a recipe for disaster. The official GDP growth rate barely above the rate of growth of population and fiscal deficit not within the limits agreed with the IMF, there is little chance of an economic recovery in the foreseeable future.

The IMF mission that was due last month has indefinitely postponed its review mission. Hence, the whole program is on hold. Our economic management team, virtually decimated to just Finance Minister Hafeez Sheikh and Deputy Chairman Planning Commission Dr Nadeem-ul-Haq, seems demoralised as their political masters rarely heed their advice. The exit of Shahid Kardar as Governor of the Central bank is an abject reminder for them that they will be shown the door as well if they do not fall in line.

Despite the fact the term of the present assemblies does not expire till early 2013, it is obvious that the ruling party is already in the election mode. It wants to cross the Rubicon of Senate elections in March next year before deciding when to hold general elections. However, if the opposition forces an election before March 2012, the ruling coalition wants to be ready for such an eventuality.

But can the country sustain its present state of disarray? The only ray of hope is that there has been respite from acts of terrorism and suicide bombings in the settled areas of the country for the past three months. If it is not merely a flash in the pan, the government needs to build on it. Whenever elections are held, apart from jhor tor (alliance building), performance is a big factor. This is where the rub lies for government at the centre as well as in the provinces.

The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today