As national politics enters the election cycle and hopes of any mid-term changes at the top fade with President Asif Ali Zardari playing smart politics, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) chief Nawaz Sharif faces the spectre of isolation in the emerging political scenario.
The return of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM)’s Sindh governor to the coalition led by the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has also made one thing clear: the PPP government is safe and sound and looks set to complete its term. Had it been a case otherwise, the MQM would not have swallowed its pride to come back to the government after making all the fuss that it did.
The chances of any extra-constitutional measures were also dashed and neutralised as no political leader worth their salt is ready to allow the military to intervene and impose its own solution. It is not just the MQM that scuttled Sharif’s political ambitions to knit together a grand alliance against the PPP-led government; its traditional friends such as the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) looked the other way too this time. “The PPP and PML-Quaid will go into the next elections as partners. The JI and Imran Khan are also set to join ranks by election time. That means Nawaz will be on his own this time,” a senior politician said, summing up the future political scenario, which is not entirely without any basis nor exaggerated.
The JI leadership, which has always looked to the PML-N for seat adjustments, is strangely not interested this time. It has also indicated its unwillingness to be part of any grand alliance. Its leadership, which is from Karachi this time, seems to be opting for a different route: it seems more interested in jumping on the bandwagon of the anti-Nawaz forces instead.
Imran Khan is also flying high this time, hoping to turn tables on his political opponents, mainly Nawaz Sharif. He is already heading a mass mobilisation campaign in Punjab targeted at the Sharifs. Nawaz has always tried to woo Imran in the past, but this time he is under the influence of forces pitted against the PML-N leadership. These two political parties have the potential to chip away further at a PML-N vote bank already depleted by the creation of the PML-Q and its alliance with the PPP.
While the PPP has managed to keep its alliances intact, all the time expanding as evident from the inclusion of the PML-Q in the coalition, the PML-N is finding it hard to find friends and allies this time around. The way the Sharifs went after the MQM as soon as it pulled out of the government without even a pause to calculate its political implications gives an indication of the difficulties their party is facing. Even the PML-Likeminded seems to be having second thoughts about joining ranks with the Sharifs.
On the other hand, the PML-Q has added to the PPP’s arsenal and strength, lending the government the stability it once lacked. The PPP and PML-Q together make a lethal combination for the Sharifs in Punjab, especially in southern Punjab where its leaders will go with the slogan of a Seraiki province, a notion not at all desirable for the PML-N but very popular among the people. If the PPP-PML-Q duo poses a threat to the PML-N in southern Punjab, the PTI and JI, along with the MQM, have their eyes fixed on urban Punjab. Things will be different this time around as compared to 2008, when the Sharifs came to power riding a sympathy wave amid expectations that they will deliver as they did in 1997.
But bad governance, evident from wastage of resources in schemes initiated for political mileage, such as the Sasti Roti and Food Stamp Scheme, compromised the Sharifs’ credibility this time. No wonder Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani claims whatever Shahbaz achieved, he achieved because of his patronage and facilitation. Even PPP leaders were surprised to find Gilani aligning so closely with the Sharifs.
The Sharifs’ style of governance, retaining power to the top echelons alone and an overwhelming tendency to not delegate, and reliance on the bureaucracy have left their party members sulking over the state of affairs. Nawaz Sharif is busy reorganisng his party as he gears up for the next elections. How he responds to the political challenges that lie ahead will be interesting to watch indeed.
