The withholding of $800 million military assistance to Pakistan marks the beginning of a ‘US containment policy’ for Pakistan prepared in the wake of al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden’s killing in Abbottabad on May 2 and in case Washington feels its South Asian ally is not doing a satisfactory job in the fight against terrorism, harsher steps could follow such as pressure through international financial institutions and expansion of ongoing drone attacks in the Tribal Areas.
The recent visit of ISI chief Shuja Pasha to Washington and the meetings of top US military officials including General David Petraeus, the designated CIA chief with army chief General Ashfaq Kayani and other senior army officials did help in lowering the tension between Islamabad and Washington that erupted in the wake of bin Laden’s killing in a US covert military operation.
However, serious differences over redeployment of US military trainers and CIA operatives in Pakistan, joint action against al Qaeda and Taliban militants on Pakistani soil and host of other issues are still very much there. Moreover, the US authorities have not yet come up with any decision on the restoration of military assistance to Islamabad and it will monitor acts by Pakistan in response to what it has been making strong demands for accelerated anti-terrorism efforts before releasing the withheld amount.
Officials privy to the recent developments said its likely that the US rather take more steps to the disliking of Pakistani authorities if Washington felt that Islamabad had not been able to reciprocate positively to its demands including the military operation by the Pakistan Army in North Waziristan against the ‘Haqqani network’, the most influential Taliban linked militant group.
Harsher steps: “The US could take measures such as expansion of drone strikes to the Tribal Areas that have not been targeted so far in addition to further increasing the number of such attacks in North and South Waziristan. They could also take unilateral action against militants on the pattern of Abbottabad operation on Pakistani soil,” said an official requesting anonymity.
He said in addition to that certain steps could be taken on the economic front and the US could use its influence in international financial institutions including the IMF against Islamabad, adding that such measures could be taken under a ‘containment policy’ to persuade Pakistan to “reciprocate to different demands in a positive way”.
However, he also warned that further punitive measures against Islamabad could lead to the end of years-long Pakistan, US anti-terrorism alliance that would also be harmful for Washington’s interests. A Pakistani diplomat, who also sought anonymity, said some elements in the Obama administration as well as in the US Congress were asking for deepening of US ties with India as part of the policy to contain Islamabad.
However, he said during the recent interaction in Washington between the ISI chief and American officials and the meetings between Pakistan’s top military commanders and visiting military officials from the US in Islamabad, it had been decided to take all possible measures for the resolution of different contentious issues and a series of dialogue would be held in coming days between the two sides on civilian and military tracks to bring the situation back to normal.
He said if the situation improved and the tension subsided with both sides reaching some middle ground then the US instead of opting for harsh methods could opt for going the other way round. “The US administration then could support Pakistan vibrantly on the forum of the IMF and other international institutions for the much needed financial assistance for its weak economy while reviewing its decision to withhold military assistance to Pakistan. Not only that, but they (Americans) could also play a much more active role in the settlement of different Indo-Pak conflicts, such as Kashmir,” the diplomat said.