Bracing for more in Karachi

Everyone is bemoaning Karachi. The city with the most potential has developed multiple fault-lines and all are bloody. But politics, especially factional politics, operates like Lady Macbeth – political actors vying for space while the city throws up bodies.

The Mutahidda Qaumi Movement should be fairly happy with the way things are unfolding, though it is unlikely they will send a thank-you note to Zulfiqar Mirza!

But of that in a while. First, let’s dismiss the thought that Mirza is a gun that cocks itself and depresses its own trigger. He is not. But he does have the bad habit of not observing fire control orders. That’s what has happened in this case. Even Shahi Syed was left squirming by Mirza’s long burst. The PPP had to disown Mirza’s statement and the ANP rushed in to control damage.

Last time round Mirza fired the shots, he was asked to take a leave of absence. He had done his job and a bit of rest was in order. That was also because the PPP thought the MQM had understood the signal and there could be a way out – i.e., the MQM couldn’t have all of Karachi to itself and the politics of the city should reflect its demography. That was not to be. Come divorce, after episodes of separation, and Mirza is back. The MQM has joined hands with the PML(N) and the two are attempting to change the political configuration in combination with other political actors. It made sense for the PPP to climb up on the escalatory ladder and resort to controlled signalling.

Except, signalling is always a tricky exercise. Consider.

There are three levels involved here: Karachi, Sindh and the federation. The MQM is ostensibly trying to spread out. That’s a legitimate political drive. But Karachi, and by extension urban Sindh, is its home-base and its survival, given the country’s factional politics, depends on its continued control of home-base. The ethnic pathology is a practical requirement for the MQM because that’s the bird in hand even as it tries to get two in the bush. It needs the urban Sindh votes to impact both the provincial and federal politics while trying to capture seats in whatever other parts of the country it can.

For the PPP, as also for the ANP, cutting the ground from under the MQM’s feet is important. Karachi is the biggest Pashtun city in the world and ANP would like to exploit its ethnic vote in the city. The PPP wants to break the hold of the MQM by scoring with the Urdu speakers and, ideally, would like to be the balancing actor between the ANP and the MQM. Equally, the PPP needs to retain its Sindhi vote. That is where it also competes with the Sindhi sub-nationalist parties. In a way then, although the PPP is the only federal party, rural Sindh remains its home-base.

None of this is illegitimate. Politics is about increasing the options. This cut and thrust would be a competition if there were some rules of the game. But we are still in the process of developing them, an optimistic statement on my part. When there are no rules of the game or when they are not fully in place and have acquired a normative value, competition can easily transform into conflict.

With the MQM having parted company with the PPP, the nature of the signalling has changed. The PPP has greater incentive to put the heat on the MQM in combination with the ANP. But as noted earlier, getting Mirza to do it can become an exercise in indiscriminate firing rather than selective sniping. The latest round, therefore, has only ended up sharpening the ethnic divisions rather than advancing the PPP’s political agenda. There is a possibility that that is what the PPP wanted because it has boosted its ratings with the Sindhi voter. If that is true the PPP needs to review its policy because Mirza’s long burst has not gone down well even with the PPP’s own Urdu-speaking leaders and cadres.

The MQM, even after becoming Mutahidda, retains its Mohajir Rabita Council. Its electoral success, among other factors, depends on vote concentration in urban Sindh, especially Karachi and Hyderabad. Its forays into other parts of Pakistan haven’t been particularly successful. It has always drawn on factional politics. Mirza has given it just what it needs to keep its flock together.

The PPP has to understand what contrasts it from the MQM. Sindh is important for it, no gainsaying that. But equally, its primary standing in Pakistan is as a federal party that can rise above ethnic and linguistic differences and has space for everyone. All parties play local cards and local chapters can have their own compulsions. But a federal party cannot afford to become too overtly parochial. Let’s put it another way. If the ANP wins seats in Karachi, it would have expanded beyond its home-base. If the PPP begins to lose its federal edge because its Sindh chapter wants it to lean heavily in favour of its home-base, it runs the risk of contracting. The overt Sindhi card also undermines the PPP’s efforts to expand its electoral appeal among the Urdu speakers of urban Sindh.

This is also the contrast between tactics and strategy. The history of warfare, as also the history of state formation, doesn’t speak very kindly of tactical brilliance at the cost of higher strategy.

At some point Pakistan has to move towards creating more provinces. Whether it would be on linguistic or administrative basis or some kind of combination remains moot. Mirza has tried to win favour with the Sindhis and has secured his own seat as well as strengthened the PPP in rural Sindh. But this tactical move will only weaken the ability of the political actors to agree on the rules of the game and evolve and break out of factional politics that has been, and is, the bane of Pakistani politics. Strong ethnic fault-lines will both necessitate more provinces and make them that much more difficult to come by.

I am not unfastening my seat belt.

The writer is Contributing Editor, The Friday Times.