It is said that misery does not come alone. Suddenly, Mr Zardari finds himself beset with all kinds of problems. Since the unceremonious exit of the MQM from the ruling coalition, Karachi is perennially bleeding. Partial suspension of US military assistance epitomises an all time low in relations with Washington. And the yet mysterious resignation of the State Bank’s Governor, Shahid Kardar, the third in less than two years, does not augur well for the already battered economy.
Relations with India, which were gradually improving since resumption of dialogue earlier this year, have hit a snag due to the recent triple blasts in Mumbai. Thankfully, New Delhi has shown remarkable restraint in not blaming Pakistan for the terrorist incidents.
Resultantly, the forthcoming foreign ministers talks to be held in Delhi later this month have not been put off. However, Indian demands of Islamabad to rein in groups like LeT operating from its territory are bound to overshadow the forthcoming talks.
After the Sindh senior minister, Zulfiqar Mirza, publicly apologised for his caustic remarks against the MQM supremo, Altaf Hussain, Karachi has returned to a modicum of normality – only for the time being. The maverick Mirza, a close buddy of the president, has been inducted back into the cabinet as a virtual chief minister. To sort out the MQM is his job description.
With the commissionerate system restored and plans to undo the gerrymandering of constituencies on the cards, peace in Karachi will remain elusive. Since it is the business hub of the country, this means a big hit for the economy with chances of business confidence being revived remaining minimal.
It can be argued that this is the price to be paid for breaking the stranglehold of the MQM on urban Sindh. The manner in which the ethnic outfit resorts to violence at the drop of the hat proves the point. However, the hydra headed monster of terrorism and violence cannot be merely tackled by administrative means.
The government is fast painting itself into a corner by not implementing the orders of the Supreme Court. It has no intentions of restoring the NICL scam investigator, Zafar Qureshi.
Obviously, keeping the FIA official away from the investigation is the bedrock of the understanding with the Chaudhrys and forms the basis of the recently brokered coalition between the PPP and the PML(Q). Despite such political compulsions, the government will eventually have to comply at some level with the apex court’s orders if it wants to avoid painting itself into another corner.
As the endgame for the US in Afghanistan approaches fruition, Islamabad finds itself in a sledgehammer situation. Relations, which had taken a dip after the CIA contractor Raymond Davis’ arrest in January this year, hit an all time low after the taking out of Osama bin Laden from Abbottabad by the US in a unilateral clandestine operation in early May.
The military and its intelligence apparatus, with a lot of egg on their faces, have not handled the situation well. Instead of coming out clean on the reasons behind Osama’s stay in a compound a stone’s throw away from Pakistan’s version of West Point, there has been a lot of stonewalling. The US simply does not buy that it was incompetence rather than collusion.
The CIA’s harebrained scheme of initiating a phony vaccination campaign in Abbottabad to obtain DNA samples from bin Laden’s family stands exposed. However, Washington feels miffed that the ISI has detained the doctor who organised the scam rather than making efforts to unearth the reasons behind bin Laden’s long stay in Abbottabad without ostensible detection by Pakistani authorities.
Despite the partial suspension of US military assistance on the pretext that Islamabad has sent 300 US military trainers packing and is not issuing visas to US personnel, the army leadership remains adamant on these issues. The recent meeting between the CIA Chief-designate General David Petraeus and General Kayani was frosty by all accounts.
However, the dash to Washington by ISI Chief and close confidant of Kayani, General Shuja Pasha, and meeting the acting CIA Chief Michael Morell signifies the continuum of the carrot and stick policy on both sides. While Pasha stuck to his guns on the issue of trainers and intelligence sharing, a lot of platitudes were expressed by both sides about cooperation.
Apart from the partial suspension of military assistance, Islamabad has been put under all kinds of pressure by the US in recent weeks. Admiral Mike Mullen accusing the government of Pakistan of being complicit in the murder of journalist Saleem Shahzad, quite contrary to diplomatic norms, the US Ambassador to Pakistan, Cameron Munter, publicly expressing concern over the Karachi killings and selected leaks in US papers have all been part of a concerted campaign to bring Islamabad under pressure.
But the mea culpa was the US embassy in Islamabad holding a gay and lesbian party just because the US diplomat who organised it belongs to the G &L Club. Of course, going by their own law, the diplomats were perfectly entitled to hold the party in the embassy. But it goes to show the arrogant disregard the US diplomat has for the cultural norms of the host country and its people.
One can see banners around Islamabad condemning the holding of the party by unnamed organisations. It is not difficult to second-guess who must have put these banners and who would allow them. Perhaps the US diplomats are oblivious to the reasons behind the poor approval ratings of their country or they simply do not care. These kinds of actions provide grist to propaganda mills of its not too insignificant number of detractors
In the aftermath of suspension of cooperation between Washington and Islamabad, Ambassador Munter confided with a few media persons that it will become clearer in the next few month whether Pakistan needs Washington more or is it the other way around. Perhaps the truth lies somewhere in between – they both need each other.
In the run up to the 2012 presidential elections, US President Obama has his domestic constituency at the top of his mind. This is already impacting his so-called Af-Pak policy. The temptation to declare victory post-Osama and cut and run and leaving Pakistan to its own devices is overwhelming.
Hopefully, history will not repeat itself as the appended risks of abandoning Pakistan are far greater now. In the light of recent talks, both sides seem to have backed off and there is a ray of hope.
The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today.