Digging up the hatchet

The US administration is providing yet another opportunity to its detractors in Pakistan to prove that it always abandons friends and allies. Any recourse to pressure tactics could lead Pakistan to take counter measures, ratcheting up the estrangement between the two countries. While the ongoing pubic posturing might win President Obama some applause from within the Congress where many lawmakers oppose the aid to Pakistan, and help Pakistan army win back some the supporters from the alienated right wing parties, the escalation of tensions is disadvantageous for both. This would weaken the attempts by the government to root out the terrorists. Notwithstanding the assurance by the ISPR that the army would continue with operations in the tribal areas on its own, lack of equipment and funds would gradually take their toll. As relations with the US deteriorate, there would be increasing pressure on the military to go for talks with the militants instead of destroying them by force. It would be argued that Pakistan has sat out military sanctions and stoppages of aid in the past also. An estrangement with the US would, however, hurt the common man as the financial gap caused by the blockade of nearly one third of the promised $2.7 billion is likely to be filled partly by diversion of funds from the already meager development budget.

Islamabad too needs to be realistic. Good relations with the US would strengthen democracy in Pakistan while estrangement could weaken the system. Reliance on China, an otherwise dependable ally, would not fill the gap created by the departure of the US. China lacks the financial clout to provide assistance worth billions of dollars and is not in a position to influence the IMF and other IFIs in Pakistan’s favour. While China has helped Pakistan strengthen its defence, it still is not in a position to supply Pakistan with the high-tech conventional weapons that its military is keen to have. The army would soon find Beijing is as demanding on the suppression of terrorists as any western power.

There is thus a need on the part of both the US and Pakistan to avoid a suspension of dialogue. Mutual help and assistance is in the benefit of both. Public posturing or resort to pressure tactics is not.