The Indian government’s indecision over whether to create a new state from the southern region of Telangana risks causing more unrest if other regions demand autonomy, and has further exposed the ruling Congress party as divided and rudderless. Bowing to demands for the new state carved out of Andhra Pradesh state will not only make Congress less popular in other parts of the ruling party stronghold, but is also likely to lead to more autonomy agitations from areas such as Darjeeling.
Since independence in 1947, Indian governments have carefully dealt with demands for new states — creating three in 2000 — while ensuring demands did not spiral enough to threaten the integrity of a nation of 1.2 billion people with hundreds of languages, ethnicities and castes. Congress’ foot-dragging over the four-decades old demand, reinforcing its appearance as a drifting party unable to make important decisions, has seen popular support for autonomy soar and a two-day strike against the government this week. “(The Congress) promised a separate Telangana state without thinking through the implications,” wrote the Times of India on Wednesday. “That’s why it’s caught between a rock and a hard place now.”
The southern state of Andhra Pradesh sends 32 Congress MPs to parliament, more than any other state. Congress won there at the last two elections on a pro-Telanaga ticket, but has since backtracked, angering its local coalition partner. Creating Telangana would deeply damage the party’s popularity in the rest of Andrha Pradesh, while reneging would destroy its support in the area that wants to be its own state. Bowing to the agitation may fan similar demands elsewhere, such as the Gorkhaland region of West Bengal, headquartered in Darjeeling, or even lead to a large-scale rethink of states. But continued inaction is likely to see Congress lose voters on both sides of the argument, as it struggles under the weight of corruption charges that have stymied reform attempts in Asia’s third-largest economy.
India’s internal borders were last altered in 2000, with the creation of three new states in economically less developed areas in the north of the country. The last re-drawing before that took place in 1957. The country’s 28 states account for 1.2 billion people, compared with 50 US states for a population of over 310 million. The most populous, Uttar Pradesh, would have the world’s fifth largest population were it a country. Business were shut and thousands of police were deployed in Hyderabad, the capital of Andhra Pradesh and the Indian base for Microsoft and Google , as protesters demanding the formation of Telangana took to the streets this week.
Autonomy activists say the Telangana region has been neglected by successive governments and trails other regions in terms of development. Many political analysts see a need to redraw India’s state boundaries, and say Telangana could be the starting point. “It’s inevitable that Telangana state would spark similar calls elsewhere,” said independent political columnist Paranjoy Guha Thakurta. At the top of the list would be Gorkhaland, where a heavily Nepali-influenced ethnic group has demanded devolved power for over a hundred years, turning violent in the 1980s. If demands for autonomy grew more strident there, Congress would again be caught in a no-win situation, with key coalition partner and state chief minister Mamata Banerjee strongly opposed. Constitutionally, states bow to New Delhi, but economic growth has empowered local assemblies, and the rise of regional political heavyweights controlling vote blocs means central government sometimes struggles to assert itself.
In many states, maverick politicians campaigning on local issues have unseated the major national players, winning large numbers of seats in New Delhi that parties such as Congress are forced to woo in order to form stable coalitions. The rise of Banerjee in West Bengal and Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh — two of India’s most important political states — is indicative of a trend that has seen concessions and policy influence handed out by the centre in exchange for votes.
