America’s emergence as the sole global superpower was heralded as the final defeat of communism and the final victory of capitalism – ‘democratic’ and ‘liberal’ – “the end of history”. It was not to be. Highly intelligent and very educated no doubt, but being short on history and poor of civilisation, America didn’t know how to adjust to the new global paradigm of no overarching enemy with which to do ideological battle for ultimate economic gain and absolute dominance. It only knew how to operate in an adversarial framework. Without an adversary, it was lost. What to do?
America invented an enemy where there was none; not realising that when you fight a fictional enemy you actually fight against yourself for soon the fictional enemy becomes a real enemy. And so it came to pass. Having outmanoeuvred everyone, overconfident and wallowing in hubris, blinded by its unmatched wealth and military power, America was all set to outmaneuver itself. This is how empires fall – from overconfidence, arrogance, and alienation from reality, intellectual waywardness, material excesses, self-indulgence and eventually decadence. How sad, for America had so much to offer if only it had not lost its moral and intellectual compass.
The fictional enemy was the religiously fractured, disunited and distressingly poor Muslim world in ideological disarray. If united, its one billion frustrated people getting increasingly radicalised by injustices, its immense resources and a small but highly educated elite were projected as a potential future superpower threat. They must be nipped in the bud. America forgot that the Muslim elite was created by the West to be its perpetual clients. America had only just started its factory for stooge creation.
The emergence of radical Islam had started in 1979 with the movement against Z A Bhutto on an Islamic platform of convenience. Later that year, the Iranian revolution set the cat amongst the pigeons. At the end of it, the Soviet Union invaded and occupied Afghanistan. The die was cast for Islamic resurgence, initially in militant form.
America’s mistake was to abandon Pakistan and Afghanistan after the Soviet withdrawal and slap nuclear sanctions on the former and also to abandon the Mujahideen and Al-Qaeda. So did their countries of origin. The latter had nowhere to go. They became a veritable powder keg: readymade guerilla fighters representing radicalising Muslims. Came the game changer on September 9, 2001, a Sarajevo-type incident that changed the world in a few minutes of infamy. Conventional wisdom has it that Al-Qaeda was responsible. But given the absence of incontrovertible proof, it could have been another false flag operation.
America’s regressive gene resurfaced. There was a throwback to coercive hegemony. It attacked and occupied Afghanistan. Commenced the Fourth World War, the ‘Global War on Terror’. The genie was out of the bottle. Then Iraq was attacked and occupied under false pretenses – yet another false flag operation of sorts. Now the genie spread all over. It was the first time America & Associates were to lose a world war. The Leviathan convulsed and started morphing anew. The world changed yet again.
Having realised that it had lost the Afghan war, America descended from hubris to hysteria. It is looking for someone to pull its chestnuts out of the fire. You guessed it: Pakistan. But America wants to have its cake and eat it too – only wanting its troops out and others put in harm’s way while continuing its huge military and intelligence presence in Afghanistan.
When Pakistan, having already lost 35,000 soldiers and civilians in this war, didn’t oblige, America started setting Pakistan up, just like it had done Iraq. It opened negotiations with some Taliban while its generals accused Pakistan of hiding Taliban leader Mullah Omar. To underline their suicidal stupidity, America then attacked little Libya and pushed its NATO mercenaries into the frying pan. Its stupidity, quite mind-boggling.
With the Global War on Terror drawing to a close, the Leviathan is convulsing again. We are in for another geographic change, from Turkey to Bangladesh, with Pakistan caught in the headlights like a rabbit. New countries could come; old countries could go, like after the Soviet collapse. It’s going to be horrendous if it happens, for we are looking at billions of human beings. However, the greatest, and ultimately only positive, change will be the decline of America as a superpower. Hopefully, the world will finally be left alone, at least for a while. The ‘American Century’ will end in less than a hundred years.
America is hysterically thrashing around for continued relevance. It’s trying to create ‘legitimacy’ for its illegalities. A new law called the ‘National Defense Authorization Act’ is on the anvil. Henceforth, it would also include America’s enemies to be those “associated” with known enemies (like Al-Qaeda and the Taliban). America would get the license to attack and occupy anyone on the slightest pretext. This would be tantamount to a Declaration of Demise rather than American Imperialism.
Then there’s – wait for it – R2P or ‘Responsibility To Protect’, like something out of ‘Star Wars’. Like R2D2 it should be called R2P2 – ‘Responsibility To Protect Too’. It is a draft being discussed, to be placed before the UN to pass as a resolution. If adopted, it would become America’s legitimate UN-sanctioned ‘responsibility’ to ‘protect’ people from those that in its opinion are tyrannical governments. The attack on Libya is but a dress rehearsal. All new ‘justifications’ to control and occupy countries important to America.
But America, like Europe and Japan, is bankrupt, no matter what gloss of jargon you put on it. It has hit its debt ceiling. Increasing the ceiling, as Congress eventually will, would confirm America’s debt addiction and send negative signals. Its government’s debt is now more than its GDP. Its “total public liabilities” are said to be some $73 trillion. That’s mind-bending in the context of its GDP of $14 trillion. It’s over, bar the shouting. America is all set to be diminished.
In 15-20 years, China’s economic output will have overtaken America’s. Its scientists and engineers will be in the ascendant; America’s best will have retired, replaced by products of a declining educational system. Economic decline would lead to social degradation and people will protest. And power will shift from west to east – totally.
Here’s an interesting aside, which you don’t have to take seriously. Says Russian astrologer Pavel Globa: “In the 21st century, under the 44th president, an awful crisis will hit the USA, and the American empire will start to fall apart.” Barack Hussein Obama is the 44th President – a black and a possible closet Muslim to boot. If he is not re-elected, the “awful crisis” will come by the end of next year. What could that be? Financial, what?
The writer is a political analyst. He can be contacted at humayun.gauhar786@gmail.com