The recently held elections of the Azad Kashmir legislative assembly have certainly cast a dark shadow on Pakistani politics. It has queered the pitch to the extent that the MQM has parted ways with the PPP, this time for real. Its chief, Altaf Hussain, has bitterly alleged that the PPP has stabbed its erstwhile coalition partner in the back.
Much to the chagrin of the MQM leadership, they are not being wooed to return to the fold. Despite media reports that President Zardari will meet Altaf Hussain during his current visit to London, the meeting has not materialised so far. On the contrary, the imminent return of Zufiqar Mirza to the Sindh cabinet (as chief minister, according to media reports) is like showing the proverbial red rag to the MQM bull.
Meanwhile, the PPP – commanding a comfortable majority in the parliament thanks to its recent alliance with PML (Q) – is acting quite smug, letting the MQM and the PML(N) stew in their own juices. MQM has a history of remaining in the government but politicking like a party in the opposition. Since 1989, it has left or threatened to leave government alliances with the PPP, the PML(N) and the PML (Q) at least a dozen times.
Erstwhile sworn adversaries, the PML(N) and the MQM are now inching closer to each other, vowing to play the role of an effective and vocal opposition. The two parties till only a few months back were literally on abusing terms. This is the best example of the truism: In politics, there are no permanent friends or foes.
Admittedly the MQM, with a vast cadre of educated and articulate members in the parliament as well as in the Sindh assembly, abetted by an experienced lot in the PML(N) would form a formidable opposition. The PPP ministers are weak in application and articulation. They will now have not only to do their homework in the assemblies but also demonstrate some governance skills, a talent they badly lack.
In the AJK elections, the PML(N) has fared poorly despite campaigning hard. Alleging widespread rigging, Nawaz Sharif has expressed his lack of confidence in any future elections under Zardari. However, party stalwart, Ahsan Iqbal, speaking to a private TV channel has contradicted his leader claiming that things are not that hopeless after all. He feels that in the presence of an independent Election Commission and an ever-assertive higher judiciary, it will not be easy to commit widespread fraud in future general elections.
Notwithstanding the rhetoric, the PML(N) will have to do a lot of introspection to chart its future course of action. Its present strategy has simply failed to win it votes or support. There are some who feel that the party’s recent anti-army rhetoric – now considerably toned down – might have cost it votes in the recent polls. Traditionally perceived as a pro-establishment party, the anti-army stand it has taken is certainly not a popular stance for its vote bank in the heartlands of Punjab and Azad Kashmir.
Purely on a tactical level, Nawaz Sharif’s solo flight, shunning alliances and co-operation with other parties, is completely out of sync with ground realities. The party has to realise that days of a “heavy mandate”, for any party for that matter, are a thing of the past. The PML(N), after initially shunning gestures from the Chaudhrys of Gujrat, does not get along with any of the major political parties. The leader of the opposition, Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, has been particularly hard on the MQM and Imran Khan.
On one side, Nawaz has espoused enlightened views on most social and political issues. But on the other, he relies on the same octogenarians for advice who not only lack any political support in their home bases but are also not on the same page ideologically. As a result, the party has virtually no presence in Sindh (rural and urban) or in Balochistan. In KP, Mian Sahib’s ambivalent stand on renaming the province has also cost him support.
Although originally a product of the army, Nawaz Sharif has become a big champion of civilian control over the armed forces. Similarly, his views on Kashmir and relations with India are now greatly tempered. Furthermore, he no longer has any qualms about fraternising with the liberal media and is a regular visitor at SAFMA.
All this is a welcome change for the better. But unfortunately, his party rank and file draws its support from the conservative and centrist elements of the society. Perhaps, the anti-US rhetoric emanating from the chief minister’s house and courting the religious right is meant to appeal to this particular vote bank.
Throwing out the PPP in Punjab was also a bad move. It not only weakened the Punjab government, it also paved the way for an alliance between the PML (Q) and the PPP. In the next general elections, this will be a formidable alliance cutting into the vote bank of the PML(N).
Hopefully, it is not too late for the PML(N) to revisit its present strategy. It needs time to reset its course and reorganise in other provinces apart from Punjab. It seems that in the present state of disarray of the party, Mr Zardari will have the better of the Sharifs in any polls.
On the flip side of the coin, new political realities have also exposed the vulnerabilities of the ruling PPP. With the MQM’s exit, it is now open to blackmail from the PML(Q). Already Ch Shujaat has succeeded in pressurising the prime minister into allocating new and more ‘meaningful’ portfolios to his ministers despite the much-touted devolution.
In the emerging scenario, the Chaudhrys could persuade Zardari to go for a plan to dislodge the Punjab government. Nawaz Sharif is also being advised to work on a strategy to resign en masse from the assemblies by the end of the year or early next year to force a general election before the Senate elections due in March 2012. Hopefully, better sense will prevail on both sides of the divide instead of putting the still incipient political system under severe strain.
The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today.