“If you pay peanuts, you are likely to get a monkey [to work for you]”, were the wise words of a media administrator in a recent interaction in Lahore. President Asif Ali Zardari must be wishing that he had more nuts to give out in Sindh, for the latest situation created in the wake of the MQM boycotting the Azad Kashmir polls could easily have been avoided had the matter been handled sensibly. Reconciliation is now the order of yesterday.
The crisis is because of two reserved seats for Kashmiri settlers in Karachi, LA 30 and LA 36. Although polls are held, they are just a mere exercise – in most cases, there is seat and voter adjustment between parties and the results are a foregone conclusion. The MQM was assuming that much like last polls, these two seats will be theirs for the taking. But perhaps they underestimated the gravity of the numbers game in the AJK Assembly: all seats were accounted for by the PPP and even the loss of a single seat would upset the balance.
But as is President Zardari’s preferred modus operandi, he had asked his subordinates in Sindh to reconcile the MQM in such a way that one seat would be given up to the PPP in return for a ministerial portfolio and a slot for advisor to the AJK prime minister. There was also an option for one of the PPP members elected from Karachi to give up his seat once the new PM was installed, thereby paving the way for the MQM to get its two seats back.
PPP-Sindh, in its attempt to please President Zardari, took matters to an extreme. Not all the options were communicated to the MQM, and those that were, were seemingly not framed in a manner that the MQM could understand or negotiate. With time running out, the PPP decided to postpone elections on the pretext of law and order.
A few days ago, it was Sindh Chief Minister Qaim Ali Shah – currently handling the affairs of the Home Department, in the absence of Zulfiqar Mirza – who had claimed on the floor of the Sindh Assembly that the security situation in the province (read Karachi) had become better, and that he was thankful to coalition partners MQM and ANP for improving it. Put another way, Shah basically said that since the MQM and ANP had agreed to talk matters out, the killings in Karachi had declined – and the credit for bringing them to the negotiating table went to the PPP.
Postponing the AJK polls in Karachi, while perhaps the last and helpless resort of the PPP, not only debunked the myth of improving law and order in Sindh but also compromised the position of Qaim Ali Shah. Surely, if the provincial supremo’s word is as good as trash, there is something very wrong with Sindh’s set-up. It is in this backdrop that there is growing clamour for Zulfiqar Mirza to return, preferably in the capacity of Sindh chief minister. The MQM has already publicly warned the PPP of tough times ahead – a notion alluding to the fact that manufactured peace can be undone at any given stage. Mirza’s brazen method of handling the MQM is seen as the perfect antidote to the MQM.
The lasting legacy of President Zardari’s current tenure was political accommodation, no matter what the cost. If the government completes its tenure of five years, this would be the first time a democratic government, and in fact the PPP, manages to survive the behind-the-scenes politicking of the establishment.
Commentators such as Nusrat Javed have been arguing, with much merit, that the PPP-PML(N) sparring is, in fact, meant to allude to the establishment that regardless of their backing to Imran Khan, they remain the only two meaningful political forces, ones with some real grassroots support. Even in that sparring, there remains an element of public perception: win, and a government is vindicated while the opposition is told a sympathy wave is not all that wins elections; lose, and the government would fall much before the Americans pull out of Afghanistan.
But PPP-Sindh has miscalculated the timing of opening a new front: the criticism of the establishment is slowly losing its bite, talk of American “controlled chaos” in Pakistan is gathering pace, the opposition is slowly but surely gathering momentum, and a repeat of the 1977 electoral fiasco is unlikely but not out of the question.
While the MQM moves to becoming a mature party – both in terms of policy and recognising nuance in statements, it was for the PPP to teach its junior partner what politicking is all about, what the numbers game meant, and how the government must extend and perpetuate its rule. Zardari needed wily old foxes to understand these dynamics in Sindh, not the toadies he currently has, who are willing to please him any given way. It might all be happening in Punjab, but the beginning of the end will be from Sindh.
The writer is Deputy City Editor, Pakistan Today, Karachi.
